Archive for July, 2010

Intel’s Discounts

Plaintiffs cannot meet their burden with an expert’s general statements about economic theory, and simply throw up their hands when record real-world facts fail to conform to economic theory,” is the quotation from a report filed in the suit against Intel.

This is about Intel paying Dell and other OEMs a “discount” to ignore AMD CPUs. The report to the court likely is about the prices paid. In the absence of sales of AMD CPUs it is hard to demonstrate that consumers/customers paid too much but what of the lack of choice? Combined with Moore’s Law it is hard to prove that Intel’s prices were “too high” or “higher than they would have been” without the discounts. This is silly when you consider the size of the bribes in $billions. If Intel’s prices were not too high, how did Intel imagine they could recoup the payments? Increased volume? Supply and demand do work. If only Intel’s chips are demanded by OEMs then Intel’s prices can be higher. When I look at the price of CPUs I find that Intel charges about $100 more for a chip of comparable performance. When AMD64 came out, AMD did, for a time charge higher prices but that did not last long as the OEMs boycotted AMD. Lack of choice means lack of competition which means higher prices. Also, a customer may prefer AMD but be unable to find them from the usual suppliers with a boycott. The end result of Intel’s discounts would have been the eventual demise of AMD. They had to reorganize, shedding the fabs. If AMD had gone under, Intel could have cleaned up. Do the courts need to see that happen to see that consumers were harmed? AMD was certainly harmed. Don’t they count?

- Robert Pogson

Solutions in Search of Problems

In IT there are problems:

  • malware
  • energy consumption,
  • space,
  • networking, and
  • maintenance.

For desktop computing no one has had a problem with speed/throughput since the 32bit days of single cores at 135nm. Now 22nm and quad-core are on the horizon with DDR3 2666. This architecture will solve problems for Intel by giving them lower-cost production/more CPUs per wafer and, under-clocked, they will use less power to do the same job for the end-user but no one is likely to see quad-core under-clocked. Are they? These solutions are mostly going to be unnecessary for end-users and will be used by the “partners” to up-sell IT. They will even encourage more feature-bloat from M$.

Servers and a few CPU-intensive niches like graphical engines and games may benefit from the new hardware but where are the thin client chips using 22nm? The world needs those to solve all the real problems, not just window-dressing for the showrooms. 22nm can drive down the cost of thin clients to the point where

  • every monitor will include a thin client at no extra cost to the end-user,
  • dedicated thin clients could be the size of a thumb-drive,
  • cost per-seat for clients could reach $100
  • a thin client could fit easily in most keyboards, and
  • every cordless phone would be “smart”.

Instead Wintel will do its best to up-sell and to prevent thin clients from ever becoming mainstream by evangelizing overkill and taxing thin clients as best they can. Fortunately, ARM does not care what Wintel does and ARMed thin clients will take up the slack by next year.

- Robert Pogson

Austria Gets FLOSS in Education

Schwarzinger finds that schools in Austria are increasingly turning to OpenOffice. The Austrian ministry of Education is supporting this move, paying the schools 10 Euro for every PC that uses this suite of open source office productivity tools.Wow! and a bunch of schools are using GNU/Linux.

Lower costs, flexibility, and support for open standards would be my guess as to the causes. The one barrier mentioned is that IT workers are still more familiar with that other OS but these moves indicate that is changing. I like the fact that the government is actually paying schools to use OpenOffice.org. The advantage to the government is that they will have future citizens and employees familiar with OpenOffice.org and since the government pays for licensing that other OS and its Office suite, this saves them money. Say that other Office costs the government $50 per PC. By bribing the schools to use OpenOffice.org $10 the government saves $40 per PC not getting Office and increases the proportion of schools using OpenOffice.org. The schools actually get an income to cover the trivial cost of installing OpenOffice.org so they have some slush for their IT programme or whatever is their priority for spending. That’s brilliant.

- Robert Pogson

Candace Hoeppner

Candace Hoeppner has done a lot of work to see that the registration of long-guns ends in Canada and she still is working hard to see that a couple of votes in the House of Commons approve her private member’s bill, C-391. She had a good interview about the process. As usual, keep in touch with your MP to support the bill. She says a number of NDP and possibly one Liberal are likely to vote for the bill but the Liberal leadership is asking all Liberals to oppose the bill. We shall see in September whether the bill goes to the Senate this year.

- Robert Pogson

The Dell Dance

Yes, Dell has shipped a lot of GNU/Linux but, no, they don’t make it easy.

Google finds five hits for “site:dell.ca ubuntu”, some of which are dead and the “choose OS” thingie does not list ubuntu.

Google finds 37000 hits for “site:dell.com ubuntu”.

Does that make sense to anybody? Is Dell a global corporation with the corporate knowledge that GNU/Linux does well in and outside the USA? Does Dell actually know how to sell stuff? Imagine a car dealer with “Keep Out” signs all around the lot. Image a fish monger with huge signs saying “Our fish stink!”. That’s what Dell is doing with Ubuntu and GNU/Linux.

- Robert Pogson

Tablets

To me tablets are pills I swallow from time to time or the thingies the UPS drivers have me “sign” on.

This is July, 2010 and in this Year of ARM, the tablets are coming. KMART will sell some. This is a new price-point, too, $150. That makes them affordable by most KMART customers and they should move a lot. I guess KMART never got the memo they should not give shelf-space to GNU/Linux…

This second half of 2010 should be quite hot for such devices. The manufacturer, Augen, makes all kinds of consumer gadgets and is not a “partner” of M$ and so in uninhibited by taxes and exclusive dealing with M$. Their retail partners may be uninhibited too. KMART sells products from M$, too, but may not have gotten the message. Interestingly Augen and KMART push Android and not ARM. Perhaps it is the year of Android, too.

I have been predicting such moves for months. ARMed OEMs will spring out of the woodwork pushing all kinds of ARMed thingies and selling them everywhere at much lower prices than Wintel can compete. By the end of the year normal PCs should be shipping with ARM and GNU/Linux. This is more than a month before school starts. Expect a big sales push now and just before Christmas in North America and Europe. Expect a big sales push in the rest of the world for the next year… Expect M$’s “partners” to be clamouring to get on the ARM/GNU/Linux bandwagon within the year. They will not put up with M$’s drag much longer.

- Robert Pogson

GNU/Linux is so Easy Even a Child Can Do IT

I have had Grade 1s in a computer lab with a bodyguard. It is a frightening experience because you never know what the little ones will do next but you can be sure they will be doing something…

My respect goes out to Helios and friends who gave a 4 day summer workshop for 22 kids. The kids not only got to know the ins and outs of ATX PCs but also installed GNU/Linux and played games on it. I would bet everyone involved learned a lot. ;-)

This shows that GNU/Linux is not only for geeks. If you have some grown-ups in your organization who are reluctant to change, perhaps this example would inspire sufficient effort. The benefits outweigh the costs:

  • relative freedom from malware
  • relative freedom from anti-malware
  • freedom from monopoly, and
  • superior performance at lower cost.
- Robert Pogson

All-in

M$ says it’s “all-in” with cloud computing and they want to convince business, in particular, that would be a reliable “partner”. Then they do this:“Windows Live shares your Messenger contacts”. In TFA, you will read that “private” means M$ thinks it’s OK to tell everyone with whom you communicate, the list of everyone with whom you communicate! So, now your boss gets to know you are talking with the competition, or lady A knows you are friends with lady B. It sounds like a mine-field.

Social networking has its place in business as in other activities but such openness makes it very difficult to keep confidences. The problem with Live is that M$ took Hotmail and Messenger and plugged them into its social network with single-signon. Businesses used Hotmail and Messenger for business purposes and now they are tangled with non-business stuff. I can see M$ doing this to increase the size of its network but I cannot see business or anyone else for that matter sticking with Live.

Where I work, there are several people locked-in to Live. They think it is the way to do everything on the web and completely confuse Live with the Internet and Live with e-mail and Live with their lives. They are absolutely amazed that you do not have to belong to Live to go places on the Internet. I can understand that. Every new machine coming out of the big-box stores promotes Live even when you fire it up the first time. I remember taking a Vista machine out of the box years ago and finding it insisting that we needed a Hotmail account to do updates… (or something – they make it very complex and they are great salesmen). It’s just another reason to avoid M$. We should not be pressured to become a partner of M$ even if we are foolish enough to use their OS.

Of course, social networking is not “the cloud” but it is part of it and M$’s clouds are dark and dangerous. Their motivation seems to be to extend the monopoly. If your role in life is not to support the monopoly, be careful to avoid entangling yourself deeper with the monopoly. Find organizations who will deal fairly with you. Organizations you can trust. I have trusted Google for a long time. They provide a good service at a great price. I heavily use their Gmail and search and maps and sometimes Trends. I have started using the desktop search function of the Google toolbar and the Google-chrome-browser. Those last two are a bit risky but they work so well and simplify my life so much that I think the risk is more than compensated by performance. I trust Google. I do not trust M$. I have not trusted M$ since I switched away from Hotmail a decade ago when my chief worry about them was spam dominating my in-box. That same year I switched away from using their OS. I have not regretted either decision.

- Robert Pogson

Inverting Monopoly

We have two monopolies supporting each other in IT: Wintel. Intel and M$ work together to support each other. M$ keeps cranking out more bloat that requires new hardware that begs for more features/capabilities in the software … Here’s what we can do about it.

Monopoly is not good for us. Monopoly is good for those who have the monopoly, in this case, two powerful corporations with fewer than a million people. We are thousands of millions. We can do more and better whatever the monopolists can do. Monopoly is not good for us because we pay too much for IT and are limited in what we can do with IT because we depend on what the two monopolists do. Then there are their partners. Need application X in 64bit? Nope. Need application Y to run on ARM? Nope. Need application Z to run on another OS? Nope. Need your network to be secure from intruders? Nope. Need an upgrade? Nope. Pay full price and you have to buy version 12.34 first, etc.

Hardware. We can buy ARM, AMD, even Apple. If you are locked into Intel because the stuff you run only runs on that other OS and it only runs on x86 you can change. You can use emulators, virtual machines, and terminal servers. There is no need to have the latest and greatest and most expensive CPU from Intel every few years on every PC so they can idle at a lower CPU utilization.
It all hinges on software. If your software is not platform independent why isn’t it? Computer Science 101 is about logic. As long as you do not build in a dependency on Intel or that other OS you are free of the monopoly. Your dependencies will be some list. Everyone using Wintel will have a similar list of dependencies.

If you count up all the folks who depend on some application it will be millions of users, perhaps hundreds or thousands of millions of users. If each one contributed $20 per instance, they could cooperate and build the most wonderful application that met all their needs in a year or so. The largest such cooperative project is probably the Linux kernel. It was started by one person who was joined by a few dozen others and they were successful in a year or so. That project has thousands of contributors now and it is very healthy. Sun did that with OpenOffice.org. They looked at the cost of a new round of licences for Office and bought the company producing StarOffice and ran with it. It paid them to do that for a few tens of thousands of licences. There is no reason at all that the world cannot produce the software it needs without relying on monopolists. There is no magic in software. If you specify the features, inputs and outputs, any decent programmer can create an application that does what you want given enough time. Given enough programmers the job can be done in less time.

Invest in FLOSS. Free yourself from monopoly. You can start right away by migrating parts of your operation to GNU/Linux and identifying the parts that do not migrate readily and fix the causes of that non-portability. Fix it by finding a FLOSS project that does what you need done or creating one. There are lots of resources on the web. FLOSS is reusable so you do not have to reinvent the wheel. Just use the wheels others have developed and contribute to the world under a Free Software licence.

These days the monopoly seems very healthy because it is taking tens of billions of dollars out of the world’s IT budget annually. That is unstable. If the world invested that amount in their own software and produced platform independent software with the money, monopoly in IT could be a thing of the past in just a few years. The advantages would be many beyond more cost-effective IT: local employment instead of corporate outposts, improved interoperability since everything would work with everything, and no more malware since the world can do a better job of producing secure software without copying vulnerabilities from previous releases.

- Robert Pogson

Dell Grows Darker

These days, it seems impossible to find Ubuntu on Dell sites. You can find pages with a checkbox for FreeDos and Linux but they lead to the ever-popular FreeDos and Redhat WS. No more Ubuntu. No explanation…

Could it be that:

  1. an agreement with Canonical has run out and has not been renewed?
  2. that the most popular distro of GNU/Linux does not sell on Dell’s chaotic site?
  3. has M$ increased the payments to downplay Ubuntu?

Since Dell has recently been caught out boycotting AMD and accepting payments for the boycott from Intel, is it not very likely that Dell would boycott Ubuntu upon payments from M$? What do you think?

“Intel made exclusivity payments to Dell in order for Dell to not use CPUs manufactured by its rival — Advance Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD). These exclusivity payments grew from 10 percent of Dell’s operating income in FY 2003 to 38 percent in FY 2006, and peaked at 76 percent in the first quarter of FY 2007. The SEC alleges that Dell Inc., Michael Dell, Rollins, and Schneider failed to disclose the basis for the company’s sharp drop in its operating results in its second quarter of FY 2007 as Intel cut its payments after Dell announced its intention to begin using AMD CPUs. In dollar terms, the reduction in Intel exclusivity payments was equivalent to 75 percent of the decline in Dell’s operating income. Michael Dell, Rollins, and Schneider had been warned in the past that Intel would cut its funding if Dell added AMD as a vendor. Nevertheless, in Dell’s second quarter FY 2007 earnings call, they told investors that the sharp drop in the company’s operating results was attributable to Dell pricing too aggressively in the face of slowing demand and to component costs declining less than expected.”

That sin cost Dell $100 million and Mr. Dell $4 million in penalties. Do you think that Dell may have stopped the Ubuntu listings promptly after this became public out of a deep need to shoot itself in the foot? I believe that, having accepted exclusivity payments from Intel, Dell would accept exclusivity payments from M$.

There’s some history here. A year ago, The Var Guy posted that Dell had cut back on desktop PCs with Ubuntu… Dell recently agreed to push Canonical’s cloudy stuff but today, Canonical is not listed as a “partner”. Dell is not listed as a partner of Canonical.

It is hard to imagine that Dell thinks there is more future in FreeDOS than Ubuntu GNU/Linux.

- Robert Pogson

You Get What You Pay For

A guy has a nice report of a construction project, a PC he built for $200 and a bit of his time. It uses an AMD64 X2 CPU and 1 gB of fast RAM on a minimal motherboard. He was under budget and if the construction and installation time cost $50/h, this project cost less than $250. He then benchmarked it against a $300 box with “7″ installed in the factory. He got what he paid for and it is faster in every test compared to that other OS on similar hardware.

This is a fine example of people doing what they can do for themselves instead of paying someone else to do that. FLOSS is like that. Need an OS? Write one. Need an application? Install it. I have done such projects many times. I built servers for Easterville because we could get better servers, for our purposes, than we could buy. We installed Ubuntu GNU/Linux because it did what we needed done better than that other OS. Another advantage of such techniques is that one never needs to hire external support. Just fix it yourself or re-install in a worst-case.

The first PC I ever built on my own was a project like this. I wanted a GNU/Linux terminal server adequate to run a 30-seat lab. Never having done it before made it fun. The students and I researched price/quality/performance on every part and drew up a purchase-order requisition. When the goods arrived we then built the system and installed the software in class. It was an excellent educational project and amazed everyone with its performance. We tried to optimize every bottleneck and every price/performance point. We even graphed prices versus price per MHz for CPUs and price/MB versus memory module size to get the most for the least.

An OEM can always build a system in volume cheaper than an individual but when you add in the price of that other OS, an individual can beat the system.

- Robert Pogson

Small Corner

Here we are a bit more than half way through 2010, The Year of ARM, and India has announced a $35 ARM tablet… I don’t know how they can build the parts for that price. There’s no room for M$’s cash cow in that. I was thinking the world would go to $100-$200 this year for ARMed devices. It could be subsidized but TFA reads “costs $35 to build”. This is unexpected, but wonderful. If true, India could ramp up production and connect the subcontinent in a few years for much less than Wintel would cost. This could change everything. China will be doing the same, I would bet.

- Robert Pogson

Jonney Shih of ASUS Says it’s a Trade-off

In this video clip, he says, “I don’t see it a issue. OK. No matter it’s Android or it’s GNOME or a special Linux. I think you can keep improving the performance. The original eeePC finally still used the Windows XP and now the Windows 7. I think mainly it’s because of the compatibility consideration, mainly because also the pricing. OK. At the beginning I think Windows, at that time, the price difference is bigger and they’re willing to sacrifice and then trying to minimize the gap. So I think it’s always the trade-off between the compatibility. So the performance, I think, is not a real issue.

(This is my interpretation of the words on the clip. Your interpretation may be different. I deleted some unnecessary stumbling words like, “uh” and “you know”)

If this is the unbiased truth, I think ASUS missed an opportunity. They could have produced units with both software systems and let the market decide. The incremental cost would have been tiny compared to the market value of millions of units. I think they had M$ over a barrel in that at the time ASUS had a monopoly on the netbooks and also M$ was legally prohibited from requiring an exclusive deal. If they had supplied both kinds, consumers would have been able to choose based on the OS on identical units, and they may have sold more units in total because folks who loved GNU/Linux may have been put off buying XP and waited until others sold netbooks with GNU/Linux. They were already tooled-up to supply GNU/Linux so they would not have to add any costs to keep it going. As ASUS is not foolish, my conclusion is that the price of XP must have ended up being negative… to pay for the missed opportunity.

- Robert Pogson

A Lump of Coal for the Christmas Stockings

In the good old days, it was customary for children to hang their socks from the fireplace on Christmas Eve to receive small gifts from “Santa”. Children who were in the “bad books” could expect to receive a lump of coal in appreciation for their naughtiness. This year a suitable lump of coal will be running Phoney “7″. It’s not a real OS at all, not being able to multitask or copy and paste… What were these guys drinking when they planned this? On similar hardware Android can run perfectly and one can install a more or less complete distro like Debian GNU/Linux and have it all.

No multitasking! No cut and paste? How limiting. Use Android and Debian GNU/Linux instead.

- Robert Pogson

A World Without That Other OS

I have just been reading M$’s annual report for 2010. M$’s business plan worked well for them. The PC division received $14 billion from the OEMs. That’s for about 300 million PCs. If consumers had not paid for that other OS, they could have bought about $14000 million/$500 per PC = 28 million more PCs. Then there’s the money consumers would not have needed to spend on malware… and some paid for Office 2010 and “down/up-grade rights”… The bottom line is that because OEMs prop up M$’s monopoly they sold 10-15% fewer PCs. Now, that’s a tax. They made less money because they were M$’s partner. Business are the same. If they spent less on software, they would be able to spend more on hardware. Then there are servers. Would OEMs not want to sell more servers?

OEMs, are you listening? Perhaps not. Too bad. The world will start buying ARM. Are you pushing ARM or letting newcomers eat your lunch? The newcomers are making smart-thingies this year. Next year they will pump out many millions of small, cheap PCs. The world will change whether you change or not. Perhaps you should change to survive.

- Robert Pogson

“7″ Challenge

A user of GNU/Linux tried to use “7″ and had mixed results. He gave it a FAIL rating. see his video on Youtube.

It does show the difference between getting a pre-installed version and doing it yourself. He had lots of problems most users of that other OS rarely see: drivers missing, applications that will not run etc. I would say GNU/Linux is much easier to install and to use. You get a lot more value for the effort. If you buy an OS installed with a PC, you do pay more but for most people, time is money and it may be worth it. I can have students install from a local repository in a few minutes with GNU/Linux so I think GNU/Linux definitely wins on time is money.

- Robert Pogson

Data From the Jury Pool of SCO v Novell

I love data. Much of my education at university and later life was learning how to select it, collect it, analyse and present it. All the data in the world means little if it is systematically biased. That is why data on the prevalence of GNU/Linux in the universe of PCs is so problematic. There is little good data. The trial of SCOG v Novell gives us some surprising data. The jury pool was 52 people randomly selected. The random selection is of course biased somehow depending on what list(s) the data was collected: property owners, drivers, whatever, but that pool is supposedly fair enough as input for the selection of a jury so it may be acceptable as a population of consumers/end-users.

Judge Stewart asked this question of the assembled candidates:“Ladies and gentlemen, do any of you know what Linux is, L-i-n-u-x? If so, would you please stand”

Here is the raw data coming from that question and my analysis. On previous pages of the transcript, you can find more information about particular candidates identified by number.


24 Would you briefly give your jury number and tell
25 us how you know what it is, what it is that generated your
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1 familiarity with it.
2 JUROR NO. 3: Juror number three, XXXXXX XXXXX. I
3 have not worked with the system. It is an open-coded system
4 that’s an operating system. There are, I know, some basic
5 setups so those users that aren’t programmers can use it. A
6 lot of my friends have actually started using the Linux
7 software instead of Windows. I have very little contact
8 with it myself.
9 THE COURT: Thank you.
10 JUROR NO. 4: Juror number four. Some of the
11 platforms that my employer uses are based on Linux operating
12 systems. We interface with it, but we do not use it
13 directly in my specific business unit.
14 THE COURT: Mr. XXXXXXX.
15 JUROR NO. 14: Juror number 14. My familiarity is
16 somewhat in passing. Working in marketing communications
17 with Web development companies, I work closely with ITs, so
18 I do understand some basic differences between Windows and
19 Linux as it relates to Web development.
20 THE COURT: Thank you.
21 JUROR NO. 16: XXXX XXXXXX, number 16. In 2001, I
22 built a new computer and used Linux.
23 THE COURT: Thank you.
24 JUROR NO. 20: Juror number 20. I know what I’ve
25 read in computer enthusiasts publications. I tried building
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1 a computer based on Linux. It didn’t work very well, so I
2 went back to Windows.
3 THE COURT: Thank you.
4 JUROR NO. 21: Juror 21, I have done some pearl
5 scripting in Linux.
6 THE COURT: You’ve done some what?
7 JUROR NO. 21: Pearl scripting. It’s a program
8 language primarily on Linux.
9 JUROR NO. 26: Juror number 26. I personally do
10 not know a lot about Linux, but by husband and my sons do.
11 We have approximately ten to 15 computers in our home, half
12 of which are Linux based and half of which are Windows
13 based, or others. I look at my book shelves and I see
14 Linux, Linux, Linux.
15 THE COURT: Thank you.
16 JUROR NO. 27: Juror number 27. Both of my
17 parents use Linux a lot, but they are working engineers.
18 THE COURT: You don’t have any personal
19 familiarity with it, though?
20 JUROR NO. 27: No.
21 JUROR NO. 28: Juror number 28. I have used
22 multiple Linux programs in my field. I haven’t currently
23 used them for probably the past five or six years.
24 THE COURT: All right. Thank you.
25 JUROR NO. 41: Juror 41. I have both used and
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1 built software for Linux distributions over the past 15
2 years.
3 THE COURT: Thank you.
4 JUROR NO. 44: Juror 44. I’ve heard of it in
5 passing. Just that it’s another option besides Windows. I
6 thought it was a free operating system.
7 THE COURT: Thank you.
8 JUROR NO. 46: Juror 46. I haven’t personally
9 used it, but I have a lot of friends who are big fans of
10 Linux.
11 THE COURT: Thank you.

Jury-candidates who stood were: 46, 44, 41, 28, 27, 26, 21, 20, 16, 14, 4, and 3

Jury-candidates who had used GNU/Linux were: 41, 28, 21, 20, and 16

So, 12 out of 52 (23%) stood indicating they new of GNU/Linux.

5 out of 52 (9.6%) stood and indicated they had used GNU/Linux.

That’s way more than 1%, people. You can argue that Salt Lake City is full of geeks or that lightning struck the court-house but a lot of people know about GNU/Linux and would use it if they found it on shelves. I expect a few who did not stand had used GNU/Linux but did not know it, say in a netbook or some gadget. A couple even built PCs and tried GNU/Linux…

GNU/Linux is ready. Are you?

HaHa!

- Robert Pogson

Good News From All Over

In spite of hundreds of millions invested in spreading FUD and getting the world to do their bidding, M$ has a few problems:

ASUS who crumbled on the netbook has replaced that other OS on its up-coming tablet thingie.
TSMC and Global Foundries, two chip fabricators will do ARM stuff at 20 and 28nm. ARM is quite competitive at 45 nm so these plans are cutting edge and likely will not run “7″.

M$, the company that is “all-in” with cloud computing still cannot please its volume-licensing customers who cannot get the website to work for them.

Suing Facebook has become a growth-industry.

Dell shipped some servers with built-in malware that infects that other OS. Oops.

HTC has come out with yet another great smartphone not running that other OS and having lots of features and reasonable price.

Malware artist gets his day in court. Too bad M$ is not listed as a co-conspirator since this guy supposedly used vulnerabilities in that other OS to do serious evil.

Nokia is looking for a new CEO who can invigorate the company. Can we expect that smart-thingies with Android will be on the horizon? So far, they have been Symbian and Meego.

Schools in Portugal will have GNU/Linux running on 890000 PCs this year.

So, in spite of FUD, webstats, and market shares, things are looking up for GNU/Linux with lots of room to grow whereas some other technologies are looking old.

- Robert Pogson

Counter FUD

I recently received a FUD post about four companies: IBM, RedHat, Google and Oracle. The FUD being sown was that these folks while pretending to be FLOSS supporters were actually crassly fighting open interoperability. The truth is much different.

IBM is a stalwart of the FLOSS community. They generate huge amounts of FLOSS code and install enormous numbers of FLOSS systems globally. The idea of FLOSS is that people, including corporations, should be able to run, examine, modify and to distribute FLOSS. IBM is about the strongest supporter of that in the corporate world.

RedHat is one of the largest contributors to FLOSS on the planet and for its size is probably the largest. GNU/Linux is huge globally but only a few years ago one had to search a bit to find solutions to problems. It was standard operating procedure to add “site:redhat.com” to a search of Google for some error message or configuration problem. They supported K12LTSP which was my preferred solution for schools after 2003. That magic opened my eyes to what was possible using existing hardware.

Google is a glorious example of a profitable business built on FLOSS. Google not only uses FLOSS as it is entitled under Free Software licences but it gives back by encouraging new FLOSS programmers (Summer of Code) and contributing cutting-edge FLOSS projects such as Chrome Browser, Chrome OS and Android. The effectiveness and wide acceptance of just these projects marks Google as a main pillar of FLOSS and why M$’s fudsters pay so much attention. Besides the obviously vigorous projects, Google inspires much best practice in IT such as Hadoop and even care and feeding of hard drives. Google is one of the foremost repositories of knowledge of the server/data-centre.

Oracle is not famous for FLOSS. They are famous for a successful non-free database, proposing thin client computing (which is finally taking off) and acquiring SUN. With the latter acquisition they own the openoffice.org, Java and MySQL projects. They seem to be in the process of shedding OpenSolaris. Some other FLOSS projects are still being sorted out in the SUN acquisition. My opinion of Oracle on FLOSS is still open. They obviously have serious channels to large business and with MySQL and OpenOffice.org seem to be developing channels to small and medium sized business. How they fit in the global picture of FLOSS is not clear to me but they can be an asset of similar effect to the others if they have the corporate will to do so. A big plus for Oracle is that they are the enemy of my enemy… and they push GNU/Linux as a platform for their database and MySQL.

So, bizarre interpretations of software patents and interoperability do not give me much doubt about the sincerity of these players as assets in the FLOSS community. M$, your fudster has failed.

- Robert Pogson

Latest on Production of Macs

One of the things the detractors of GNU/Linux like to trot out are webstats of questionable reliability that show GNU/Linux has about 1% of web visitors while Apple has nearly 5%. The latest Mac numbers show how silly that is:
“Apple sold 3.47 million Macs during the quarter, representing a new quarterly record and a 33 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 8.4 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 61 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 9.41 million iPods during the quarter, representing an eight percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter. The Company began selling iPads during the quarter, with total sales of 3.27 million.”

We expect something like 330 million PCs to be produced this year, about 82 million a quarter. 3.47/82X100= 4.23%, much lower than the web stats share. 5% might be reasonable if Macs lasted longer than PCs but the hardware is essentially the same so that is not likely. Is it?

- Robert Pogson

AMD Come Late to the Game

In 2009 I was whining that AMD and Intel need to satisfy the netbook market. Intel brought out the Atom and did well but AMD passed. Now, almost two years later, AMD is coming to the game with a suitable chip. They might earn some thin-client action with that as well.

Some people just ignore me… ;-) AMD in its ivory tower just did not see that the netbook was here to stay and gave Intel a huge lead. Where is the AMD of years ago who brought out amd64 ahead of Intel? Perhaps there were other business reasons for passing on netbooks but publicly they said, “We’re ignoring the Netbook phenomenon–just thinking about PC form factors above that form factor.” Well, better late than never.

- Robert Pogson

Free Software – Relevance and Utility

There are still so many people who post on the web who do not understand Free Software. They see it as some evil conspiracy to deny software developers or software businesses their just rewards or as a foolish, impractical idea that can not work. I see Free Software as the right way to do software. Free Software is relevant to everything we do in information technology and it is very useful.

I do not understand the concept of Free Software being evil in any way. We do not view family or community as evil. How could Free Software be evil? Families raise children and set them free. It would be frowned upon to raise children as slaves. Family, neighbours, communities and nations donate their labour and resources to help individuals and groups. That’s not evil. It is because we are social beings that we help one another. Imagine how impoverished our lives would be if we never shared: homes would be crude hovels for the most part, no one would own a car because there would be no roads and life would be brutal and short. Free Software is a concept and process of sharing software with everyone without condition except that if distributed the software licence must be passed on so that the four freedoms remain: use, examination, modification and distribution under the same licence as you received the software. Who could argue against freedom for our children or freedom for our software?

Free Software demonstrably works. Look at GNU/Linux for example. Hundreds of thousands of developers contribute components of the system and many millions use it. Free Software is eminently practical because it lowers the barrier to entry permitting enthusiastic young (or old) people to jump in and make the world a better place through better software. No one has to create a software package from scratch. They can use libraries and services provided by existing Free Software packages, combine them in some novel way and add new algorithms and data-structures to provide new software in a shorter time. It is very important that Free Software costs little because the startups/youngsters do not need huge capital to start. With non-free software it might take hundreds of thousands of dollars in licensing fees to start plus royalties per derivative product might be needed, a terrible hurdle and complication for a startup. Thus Free Software provides a rich environment for software development to flourish.

Detractors claim no money can be made from Free Software so that developers do not get paid but that is false. Look at Google, one of the largest and most successful Free Software businesses. Do their programmers not get paid, and their office workers and IT people and their investors? Of course they do but the money does not flow from sale of software licences. The money flows from the use of the Free Software and its products and services. Even a newbie developer who contributes without salary gets paid in the form of a valuable notch on the resume, contacts in the industry and feedback from users. There are lots of jobs who need developers’ skills and putting a name on software is excellent advertising. Of course, some are not very successful but that is the same everywhere. Even the less successful benefit by being involved in a larger project and everyone benefits by being able to use the software.

The folks who complain about Free Software have the option of not using it but they will be without the advantages and there are many. Beyond what has already been mentioned, openness is a great advantage. If you are considering what software to use it is a huge advantage to be able to see the bug reports at http://bugs.debian.org . That’s part of the feedback loop to developers and end-users also get to see what issues exist. With non-free software businesses usually see no advantages in advertising defects. That’s not what salesmen do.

Perhaps the motivation of detractors is not rational. Perhaps it is FUD. Fear that their favourite cash-cow, M$, will dry up. Uncertainty what to do if that happens and doubt that sticking with M$ is really in their best interests in the long term. As long as the monopoly dies slowly or diversifies no one should be out of work but those who think the world works for them and M$ may have to start working for a living being productive instead of being M$’s sales-team. It’s so easy to assume the customer wants that other OS. You just have to ask, “Would you like XP or “7″ with your PC?” instead of discussing freedom, lock-in and malware. It’s so easy to assume that selling the customer another software package to “protect their PC” (when it’s that other OS and the monopoly being protected) is good for business when that customer may be lost forever when they realize they have been scammed. It’s so easy to assume “marketing funds” from M$ is good business and not a market-monopolizing bribe. It’s so easy to assume the gravy train will never end when the market share shrinks steadily.

Enough caring for the dysfunctional. I shall continue to rejoice in the wonderful flexibility and functionality of software from the Debian GNU/Linux repositories. My favourite thing is that I can install a thousand packages of software in a few minutes from a local cache (apt-cacher-ng) at the speed of my LAN. I can do a basic installation from CD or USB drive and add the right packages for the job the end-user needs done in a few minutes or adding a few packages for a new task or update in seconds, all without budgets, purchase-order requisitions or wait-wait-waiting. There is nothing like that in the non-free world. What makes this possible is the licence riding along with the software in each package giving permission to use, examine, change and distribute under the same terms. FLOSS works.

- Robert Pogson

Don’t Call the Police

M$ is asking anyone affected by the latest hot vulnerability in their amateur operating system to call the police. Don’t waste your time. M$ is part of the problem, not the solution. They want you to waste your time so that they can pretend to fix something in the meantime. Instead you should call your IT guys/gals (if you don’t have any, hire some or a consultant/system architect). Give them these instructions:
Get M$ out of my system STAT!

(STAT (statim – immediately))

Ideas that may be proposed include switching to Macs but that is the most expensive commonly used option and also is a system with a lot of top-down nonsense. GNU/Linux is a much better solution. It is a cooperative product of the world designed by people who do not want to invite malware into your PC, not salesmen.

The fastest way to go to GNU/Linux is to migrate files and databases to GNU/Linux servers and to convert the client machines to GNU/Linux via a network installation. Done right all that needs to be done is to set every machine to boot PXE as the first option and set up an LTSP terminal server in each department or office or set up an installation programme to boot with the machines. You are far better off to have a couple of days or a weekend of scheduled downtime than the devastation of the latest malware M$’s trojan invites in. Extremadura, Spain, converted 80K seats over a weekend. You can do it. To speed up network installations, I recommend using apt-cacher-ng to cache any packages downloaded from Debian’s repositories locally so that they can be served at LAN speed instead of web speed.

There is no limit to how bad malware can be. It can range all the way from sending spam e-mail from your machines to selling all customer lists and sabotaging data by rot over a long period of time so that by the time you catch it weeks of work could go down the drain. The worst case is killing your operation through lawsuits charging negligence in allowing disaster to happen when reasonable people know you do not allow malware to run on your systems.

If anyone objects that the migration is impossible or too much effort, retrain them or fire them. If your software is incompatible with GNU/Linux use other software or hire someone to create your own.

Come back to your senses. When the criminals tell you to call the police you know they fear the police less than your attention to your own business. Don’t let M$ tell you how to run your operation.

For ideas about how to migrate to GNU/Linux, check out these resources:

http://www.redbooks.ibm.com/redbooks/pdfs/sg246380.pdf

http://www.redhat.com/migrate/

http://www.novell.com/products/desktop/

http://www.debian.org

- Robert Pogson

Five Billion Cell-phones

I don’t get cell-phones. I do not even have a wired phone up North where I work. A report from Sweden states that 5 billion cell-phones are in use and hundreds of millions are on the web. This changes everything, apparently, and explains why people are willing to pay up to $1000 for a smartphone.

One thing that this news changes is the perception of unreality in the Marketshare.hitslink.com statistics. iPhones are only a few millions out of hundreds of millions of smartphones but they show .59% share of web accesses. That is not possible because, added to the 1300 million or so PCs the smartphones, this brings web-accessability to 1600 or more devices and .59% would be 100 million iPhones (Apple has scarcely sold half that number). This is another sure deviation from reality put out by NetApplications. I read that Apple has only recently opened a second store in China. China, alone has more cell-phones in use than Apple has made.

Again, thanks to Apple, we know several percent of PC share are unaccounted. It is widely believed that M$ has a bit less than 90% share of PCs so GNU/Linux must have a much higher share than NetApplications suggest. It is not credible that M$ will have a higher share in the emerging markets than it has in the USA/Europe where folks are wealthy enough to afford the costs.

I can see spending perhaps $200 on one of these gadgets but I do not need cell-phone capability, just camera, GPS, and wifi. With so many models on the market there must be one that suits me. I like the features of the HTC Legend but not the unlocked price, ~US$300 … I can wait for the price to drop. It is not clear to what extent these devices are taxed by M$. I will study that too. Out of $300 if only a few pennies goes to M$, I might have to live with that. I do not have a list of products taxed.

- Robert Pogson

Relationships

Human relationships are complex and evolve over time. In my life I have witnessed various stressors that can cause breakdowns in relationships:

  • smoker v non-smoker
  • long summer vacation by car or canoe
  • building a house or buying a car
  • choosing colours
  • teaching another to drive a car or use a PC

The Blog of Helios has a current entry about teaching another to use a PC, this time with GNU/Linux.

Having been a teacher, I have introduced students and staff to GNU/Linux many times. The younger the student the less difficult the task… Young people do a lot of things for the first time, for good or evil. Everything is new to them and change is a constant. By the time an adult has been using that other OS for a decade, it can be very difficult to lead them to change.

It does not help that everyone around an adult has been using the same OS for a decade or that that other OS hides stuff like filename extensions, partitions, or file paths. Fortunately,, with GNU/Linux most users are encountering GUIs and it’s point and click with an icon as an abstract representation. There is not that much difference until you actually try to find something… It really helps to name folders with human-readable clues. I sometimes stick the date into the filename where I have a bunch with similar names or use long descriptive names. Then there is the “/” v “\” thing. Curse M$ for developing that bit of lock-in. Fortunately GUIs can be managed with rarely having to type in a slash.

My “significant other” used a handful of notes on foolscap with detailed instructions how to do anything for a PC for more than ten years. She can handle XP now without the notes but I worry about the day that she goes to GNU/Linux. Until now her job used M$-specific software even on a web-interface. That is changing as the industry adopts open standards. Her next PC or OS change will likely be to GNU/Linux and I may plan a vacation at that time and leave it to another member of the family to do the hand-holding. I am too old for divorce.

Fortunately, the world is filling up with young people for whom migrating to GNU/Linux is a welcome, refreshing change. The current generation of young people will live in a world where there is choice in computing platforms. There are many forces leading to that result. One of them is exposure to GNU/Linux in schools. Another is the access to GNU/Linux on low-priced gadgets (smartphones are getting to that state soon…). In North America the success of Apple shows young people that there are other ways of doing things. After a person learns their second language a third is much less difficult because the major concepts carry over. Malware and prices of licences are major costs of IT that GNU/Linux answers well.

The bottom line is that patience pays. Given enough time the world will accept GNU/Linux much more widely and IT will be much more interesting. For a long time many will have access to two or more operating systems even on a single PC and an unlimited number via the network.

- Robert Pogson

Neelie Kroes Endorses FLOSS

Neelie Kroes the EU Competition Commissioner who tackled M$ and AMD has produced a video of a public statement about FLOSS.

It’s not news for many of us but folks still enamoured of that other OS may be surprised at the depth of the influence of FLOSS in Europe. Every part of the world is somewhat different but FLOSS is everywhere these days. Every continent has one or more major distros. Every region of the planet finds people taking FLOSS seriously and running with it to make IT work better for them. What started as a trickle of usage by OEMs around 2007 is a torrent today. Just check out smartphones and embedded devices. ARM and GNU/Linux is growing strongly in netbooks, notebooks and tablets, too. GNU/Linux is taking major share on servers and desktops. There does not seem to be any slowing of the growth. Where it will end is not clear but it surely began a few years ago when most people realized that FLOSS can do the job. We are seeing the realization in practice rather than in concept.

Kroes mentions Munich which has implemented FLOSS and open document flows but is still dragging its feet on GNU/Linux. They plan to be finished in 2013… If they run FLOSS apps, it is a puzzle to me why it is taking so long to move the OS. Maybe there is less urgency because the price of PCs dropped and they are running XP now… I just don’t know. Things like moving accounts and issuing memos on a few basic operations could be done on a weekend per department.

- Robert Pogson

Use GNU/Linux

Everyone is using GNU/Linux except OEMs and retailers. They are locked in to the revenue sharing from that other OS. Demand change.

GNU/Linux is an operating system. It allows us to run computers and create, find, change and display information better than that other OS:

The reliability, performance, and low cost of GNU/Linux is what you need. Go with GNU/Linux on server, database, network and desktop for one low price, $0, for the licence.

- Robert Pogson

Respecting the GPL in Droid X

Motorola has incorporated a “security” feature in Droid X smartphones. This is not unusual in the world of non-free software but this is Android which is Free Software. Distributors of Free Software permit the user to run, examine, modify and redistribute the code under the same rules as the Free Software licence permits. How then, does Motorola get away with turning the machine into a brick if one replaces the contents of the ROM? This may be a security feature for those who lose their phones or wish to have them unhackable but it is a barrier for those who wish to keep the software up to date without Motorola’s support. These will become bricks eventually if Motorola calls an end to support and some bug or vulnerability appears.

Didn’t we go through this with Tivo? Tivo was not distributing the source code. What use is the source code if a user cannot install it? While Android is distributed under the Apache Software Licence, parts are still GPLv2 (kernel). Motorola cannot both permit the four freedoms under GPLv2 while denying them by hardware security.

ASL includes this provision:”4. Redistribution. You may reproduce and distribute copies of the Work or Derivative Works thereof in any medium, with or without modifications, and in Source or Object form“. How can that apply if the Droid X is bricked in the process?

- Robert Pogson

Time to Get Rid of That Other OS

I got rid of that other OS personally for failure to function. It seems these days vulnerabilities are a bigger motivation.

The latest outrage is an attack that exploits another form of “autorun” for shortcuts/links on USB drives. That other OS lets the malware walk right in even if the user does not click on any of the links. That other OS tries to be so helpful…

Further, the malware carries signatures that appear legitimate… The layers of paint masquerading as security on that other OS are peeling off. This must be the last straw for a bunch of users. We have USB ports on most PCs these days for a good reason. We should not fear to use them. Use an OS that works for you and not creators of malware. IMHO that other OS should be viewed as the primary trojan malware on the planet, an epidemic to be expunged before we suffer even greater disasters.

It is easy to be rid of that other OS:

There are hundreds of ways to be free.

- Robert Pogson

Unlocking the NHS

The NHS with about a million employees is going to be reorganized. As part of that the agreement between the NHS and M$ to be locked-in has been terminated. You can read the whitepaper about the reorganization here. Here is the part about reorganizing information:
“An NHS information revolution
2.5 Information, combined with the right support, is the key to better care, better outcomes and reduced costs. Patients need and should have far more information and data on all aspects of healthcare, to enable them to share in decisions made about their care and find out much more easily about services that are available.

2.6 The Government intends to bring about an NHS information revolution, to correct the imbalance in who knows what. Our aim is to give people access to comprehensive, trustworthy and easy to understand information from a range of sources on conditions, treatments, lifestyle choices and how to look after their own and their family’s health. The information revolution is also about new ways of delivering care, such as enabling patients to communicate with their clinicians about their health status on-line. We will provide a range of on-line services which will mean services being provided much more efficiently at a time and place that is convenient for patients and carers, and will also enable greater efficiency.

2.7 Information generated by patients themselves will be critical to this process, and will include much wider use of effective tools like Patient-Reported Outcome Measures (PROMS), patient experience data, and real-time feedback. At present, PROMs, other outcome measures, patient experience surveys and national clinical audit are not used widely enough. We will expand their validity, collection and use. The Department will extend national clinical audit to support clinicians across a much wider range of treatments and conditions, and it will extend PROMs across the NHS wherever practicable.

2.8 We will also encourage more widespread use of patient experience surveys and real-time feedback. We will enable patients to rate services and clinical departments according to the quality of care they received, and we will require hospitals to be open about mistakes and always tell patients if something has gone wrong. We will also require that staff feedback around the quality of the patient care provided in organisations is publicly available. As in many other services, this feedback from patients, carers and families, and staff will help to inform other people with similar conditions to make the right choice of hospital or clinical department and will encourage providers to be more responsive.21 The Department will seek views on how best to ensure this approach is developed in a coherent way.

2.9 Information will improve accountability: in future, it will be far easier for the public to see where unacceptable services are being provided and to exert local pressure for them to be improved. There is compelling evidence that better information also creates a clear drive for improvement in providers. Our intention is for clinical teams to see a meaningful, risk-adjusted assessment of their performance against their peers, and this assessment should also be placed in the public domain. The Department will revise and extend quality accounts to reinforce local accountability for performance, encourage peer competition, and provide a clear spur for boards of provider organisations to focus on improving outcomes. Subject to evaluation, we will extend quality accounts to all providers of NHS care from 2011 and continue to strengthen the independent assurance of quality accounts to ensure the content is accurate and fair. We will ensure that nationally comparable information is published, in a way that patients, their families and clinical teams can use.

2.10 More information about commissioning of healthcare will also improve public accountability. Wherever possible, we will ensure that information about services is published on a commissioner basis. We will also publish assessments of how well commissioners are performing, so that they are held to account for their use of public money.

Information to support choice and accountability
In future, there should be increasing amounts of robust information, comparable between similar providers, on:

  • Safety: for example, about levels of healthcare-associated infections, adverse events and avoidable deaths, broken down by providers and clinical teams;
  • Effectiveness: for example, mortality rates (this could include mortality from heart disease, and one year and five year cancer survival), emergency re-admission rates; and patient-reported outcome measures; and
  • Experience: including information on average and maximum waiting times; opening hours and clinic times; cancelled operations; and diverse measures of patient experience, basedon feedback from patients, families and carers.

2.11 We will enable patients to have control of their health records. This will start with access to the records held by their GP and over time this will extend to health records held by all providers. The patient will determine who else can access their records and will easily be able to see changes when they are made to their records. We will consult on arrangements, including appropriate confidentiality safeguards, later this year.

2.12 Our aim is that people should be able to share their records with third parties, such as support groups for patients, who can help patients understand their records and manage their condition better. We will make it simple for a patient to download their record and pass it, in a standard format, to any organisation of their choice.

2.13 We intend to make aggregate data available in a standard format to allow intermediaries to analyse and present it to patients in an easily understandable way.
Making aggregated, anonymised data available to the university and research sectors also has the potential to suggest new areas of research through medical and scientific analysis. There will be safeguards to protect personally identifiable information. We will consider introducing a voluntary accreditation system, which will allow information intermediaries to apply for a kitemark to demonstrate to the public that they meet quality standards.

2.14 Patients and carers will be able to access the information they want through a range of means, to ensure that no individual or section of the community is left out. In addition to NHS Choices, a range of third parties will be encouraged to provide information to support patient choice. Assistance will be provided for people who do not access on-line health advice, or who would particularly benefit from more intensive support.

2.15 We will ensure the right data is collected by the Health and Social Care Information Centre to enable people to exercise choice. We will seek to centralise all data returns in the Information Centre, which will have lead responsibility for data collection and assuring the data quality of those returns, working with other interested parties such as Monitor and the Care Quality Commission. We will also review data collections with a view to reducing burdens, as outlined in chapter 5. The forthcoming Health Bill will contain provisions to put the Information Centre on a firmer statutory footing, with clearer powers across organisations in the health and care system.

2.16 Providers will be under clear contractual obligations, with sanctions, in relation to accuracy and timeliness of data. Along with commissioners, they will have to use agreed technical and data standards to promote compatibility between different systems. The NHS Commissioning Board will determine these standards but they will include, for example, record keeping, data sharing capabilities, efficiency of data transfer and data security. We will clarify the legal ownership and responsibilities of organisations and people who manage health data. This may require primary legislation and we will consult on arrangements later this year.

2.17 The Department will publish an information strategy this autumn to seek views on how best to implement these changes.

Others are seeing only the failure to extend the agreement with M$. The bigger picture is that to carry out the proposed reforms, open standards must be used and that cuts out M$. Given the requirement for local control with open standards and periodic “investments” of millions of dollars, the local entities will opt for FLOSS. One can argue that NHS should have escaped M$ back in the old days but they still can escape now with a smaller “investment” than going to “7″.

This is the biggest deal of its kind on the planet, perhaps, but expect more defections from long-term commitments to M$. It just does not pay to provide M$ its huge margins.

UPDATE: M$ is announcing that employees of NHS who used features of the EWA to install software at home must now uninstall or delete stuff. Chuckle. Will the employees be upset with M$ or their employer? Will the employees find OpenOffice.org works for them?

- Robert Pogson



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My Mission

My observations and opinions about IT are based on 40 years of use in science and technology and lately, in education. I like IT that is fast, cost-effective and reliable. I do not care whether my solution is the same as yours. I like to think for myself.

My first use of GNU/Linux in 2001 was so remarkably better than what I had been using, I feel it is important work to share GNU/Linux with the world. I have been blessed by working in schools where students and school systems have benefited by good, modular software easily installed in most systems.

I have shown GNU/Linux to thousands of students and hundreds of teachers over the years and will continue in some way doing that until I die in spite of the opposition.

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