Archive for April, 2010

And it Came to Pass

A while back, I declared 2010 the Year of ARM and predicted by the end of 2010 we would see ARM competing mainstream on desktops and servers. Well, I might have been a few months off, but ARM will make a move within a year. It’s not that I had inside knowledge or can tell the future. It’s just the logical thing to do. If you have a chip that uses less power to get the job done use it where that matters: portables and servers. On portables we want to preserve the battery. On servers, we want to avoid melt-down.

Let’s see… When did I predict the demise of M$? Well, that will come to pass to, but it will take a while longer. I can wait.

- Robert Pogson

Killing Bug #1

Bug #1 affects all GNU/Linux distributions, “M$ has a majority market share.”. The boys and girls at Debian GNU/Linux and Ubuntu are working hard to fix this bug but they cannot do it alone. M$ has enlisted most of the world’s OEMs, retailers, and IT people to work slavishly maintaining a monopoly on the desktop. The GNU/Linux folk need our help to fight for Free Software.

Things we can do that cost little but will have some effect:

  1. Keeping asking retailers for GNU/Linux. Tell them you do not like that other OS and you want a PC that is reliable, does not slow down, does not need re-re-reboots etc. Keep pestering them. They have been saying no one wants GNU/Linux for so long they may believe that is true. Convince them otherwise.
  2. Tell you retailer you will shop elsewhere for what you want because they do not have it. Do not hesitate to use a voice loud enough that a few other customers may hear there is an option.
  3. Have a supply of GNU/Linux installation CDs available on a moment’s notice. Do not miss an opportunity to supply one to any acquaintance.
  4. Offer to install GNU/Linux for folks whose PC has slowed down or been gummed up with malware. Seeing is believing. If they are going to shell out money to fix the problem, it costs them little to try GNU/Linux. For some folks this window of opportunity comes annually.
  5. Ask retailers for products running ARM, not just tiny gadgets but PCs, thin clients and netbooks. Supply them links to suppliers of the products you want.
  6. Have a GNU/Linux PC running at your next social gathering. Someone will be curious and try it.
  7. Support your distro to make it better: testing, debugging, writing documentation, creating graphics.
  8. Talk, blog, boast, shout, show as many people as you can about GNU/Linux. Most already know something about GNU/Linux. Make it something higher on their scale of conciousness, something accessible.

It does no good to point out the negatives about the situation. We must be proactive and show people how their lives will be better using GNU/Linux. Today I showed a man and his niece with a non-booting PC what could be done with GNU/Linux. They are all for it if it saves them the cost of shipping their box by air yet again to the fix-it shop. The machine has been handled roughly too many times that way by its appearance. They have a nice machine but that other OS refuses to run. Chalk up another small victory for GNU/Linux.

- Robert Pogson

eeePad

It looks as if ASUStek is coming back into the fold of FLOSS with a new product this summer, a tablet-format PC. If it runs Android, is it ARM-based? Amen! That may be the best way for an OEM to escape Wintel. The boss seems to think the pad devices will take 10-20% of the market of netbooks. That is a good vision. Netbooks should also take a percentage of notebooks. I can see within a few years GNU/Linux having 20% share on the low-end devices, including thin clients. After that there is no stopping GNU/Linux on the high end. Too many people will know about it.

- Robert Pogson

“Sources believe”

Digitimes has an article about the stiff competition for notebooks of all kinds globally. There is some debate apparently between IDC and Gartner about who is #1, Acer or HP. It appears that “sources” believe the position will depend on a return to the old days of notebooks, pre-netbook…

“However, the sources believe that as the notebook market will return to focus on traditional notebooks in the second half of 2010, the rankings may reshuffle again.”

I always wonder about unnamed sources. It is very easy for Wintel or Wintel’s partners to put out false news. Alarm bells go off in my head when the sources suggest the good old days will return soon. You cannot put the genie of the netbook back in the bottle. Acer has the inside track distributing such gadgets to ISPs, banks, etc. The developing markets can absorb billions of these things running ARM and GNU/Linux, just not x86 and that other OS…

In physics, this is described as a “population inversion”. A higher energy level of atoms tends to drop to a lower energy level as conditions permit. That is the principle used by many lasers. One atom decaying triggers the others. In IT we have a market that “believes” one needs to sell high-priced devices to make money even as netbook makers are making lots of money, so suppliers are still producing tons of notebooks in the >$500 range while consumers want/need <$300 devices. These sources may be trying to preserve the myth. When Acer forges ahead in the next quarter riding the wave of netbooks, the truth will be clear to all. Then the floodgates of netbooks running ARM and GNU/Linux, to increase margins, will open making my prediction that this is the Year of ARM come true.

Netbooks need lower prices to sell because everyone knows it costs less to produce something that is smaller and has less material. Manufacturers must choose ARM and GNU/Linux because that reduces their costs of production enough to make selling these devices profitable. Unless manufacturers conspire to block ARM+GNU/Linux on netbooks these will take off this year. Conspiracy is not likely because Acer can continue doing what it is doing and climb over HP in the next quarter. Acer will not skip that opportunity for the sake of Wintel. Others will then have to compete by adopting ARM+GNU/Linux. If Acer does not push ARM because Atom is working for them, others will. Enjoy the show.

- Robert Pogson

Success Delayed is Failure

Many are hailing “7″ as a great success. I say not so.

  • “7″ is a bugfix of Vista which was already late
  • XP is still dominant in business

Unless M$ can convince business to adopt “7″ it can hardly be called a success. Recent figures show adoption of “7″ is still slowing and mostly on new PCs. The old XP machines can last several more years. Market acceptance several years later than possible is not success. Of course, GNU/Linux has succeeded in every way but massive adoption, but we do not have a monopoly with OEMs, retailers, and business. M$’s share continues to slide even according to Network Applications.

From M$’s viewpoint, “7″ is a success in that the money keeps flowing in but a failure in that the flow of money is only about 70% of what it could be if they had 100% share of PC production. Putting XP under an old licence on a new machine brings them no joy. That is what business is doing.

The last quarterly report looked good only if you ignore the inclusion of deferred licences from other quarters for “7″. The next quarterly report will be more honest. I look forward to the end of April.

- Robert Pogson

1=30

I just saw an ad on Linuxinsider.com that I have to share. It should read, “Get 1/3 less for your money!”. Rather, M$ states that “1=10″ meaning their restrictive EULA will allow you to connect 10 machines to your PC as a terminal server running their stuff. With GNU/Linux, most modern PCs can run 30 thin clients so you get three times as much computing power for your money.

A GNU/Linux terminal server, sharing using simple X-windows needs:

  • 100 MB per client above the 256MB needed for the OS
  • 100 MHz of CPU frequency per client
  • 1 gigabit/s NIC helps

A typical PC running GNU/Linux uses 1% CPU load per client while pointing, clicking and gawking so 30 clients working hard might reach 30% CPU load. Shared memory in a UNIX OS means only one copy of each application need be in RAM at once. This allows you to use your RAM for users’ data rather than software. 2gB RAM can run the OS and 15 or more users. 4 gB can easily run 30 users simultaneously. At Easterville where I set up a school we used about 3gB per terminal server and rarely reached 50% CPU utilization on dual core CPUs. Imagine how many user we could run on a modern 64 bit CPU with much more RAM!

So M$ is advertising that it is second rate. Pity. They could give customers so much more if they wanted to but they are stuck in their old ways. We should use GNU/Linux to get the best bang for the dollar.

- Robert Pogson

Look What Happens When There is Competition!

  • smartphones – Android growing fast, that other OS shrinking
  • web servers – Apache with GNU/Linux riding high
  • high performance computing – GNU/Linux wins easily – only 1% use that other OS
  • LAN servers – who knows? Too closely tied to that other OS on clients
  • desktop clients – GNU/Linux has 1-10% depending on whom you ask. We know there is not enough competition here thanks to illegal activity by M$ and lax police action.

Spread the word. That other OS cannot compete. It’s too busy working for M$.

- Robert Pogson

Ten Seconds

Are we there yet? That is what we used to ask our parents in the middle of a long ride in the car… Now Phoronix has checked the boot-time of Ubuntu 10.04. No it is not 10s yet on a netbook with SSD but at 18s they are getting close. I cannot wait until they compare “7″ and Ubuntu 10.04. Chuckle… That will be interesting.

The impressive improvement in boot speed results from dependency based booting with some parallel processing. This is new this year in GNU/Linux so there should still be room for improvement. These numbers surely make our XP machines look sick. They are harnessed to 40 gB hard drives but the new SSDs peaked at over 100 MB/s. Will they have to do RAID 0 SSDs to meet the 10s goal? Stay tuned.

The booting process is now very intelligently done. In the beginning we had a tightly-arranged sequential list of steps and everything had to waaaiiiittt for the current step. Occasionally, I have seen 30s timeouts in there…. We live in interesting times. The final straw may be laying out the storage blocks for optimal booting on hard drives. SSDs may benefit a bit from that too as they do have rows. At least one Live CD did that for improved booting.

- Robert Pogson

Batoche + 125 Years

We are approaching the 125th anniversary of the Battle of Batoche wherein the government of Canada crushed the Northwest Rebellion of 1885.

My great grandfather was one of the soldiers raised in Ontario and brought west by the almost-complete Canadian National Railway to fight people who just wanted to be left alone to farm, hunt and fish. These were the Metis descended from French explorers and traders and Cree all over the prairie provinces. Louis Riel had led the first rebellion in 1870 at Winnipeg when the Canadian government had refused to respect the rights of the metis to own land. Riel was the father of confederation for Manitoba but he had to flee to Montana to escape trial when the rebellion collapsed. He was recalled 15 years later when the expansion of the railroad and settlement again threatened Metis land. The Canadian government would not respect these people so they fought back, winning the first few encounters. They could not stop an army supplied with machine guns and artillery, however and they were vastly out-numbered.

The battle lasted just a few days but was one of the darkest periods of Canadian history. The government of our “peace-loving” country rained deadly fire on men, women and children in the village of Batoche. A hundred years later, the same government made the argument that no Canadian had a right to own firearms because they were not necessary for self-defence. Also, a hundred years later, Riel has monuments in Winnipeg, Batoche is a National Historic Site and the Metis are valued members of Canadian society.

- Robert Pogson

GNU/Linux on Fire

Jane Silber, the boss at Canonical, says that Ubuntu has about 10 million installations and is growing at about 10% per month. That would make Ubuntu the 1% that NetApplications sees. Since there are several distros with similar popularity to Ubuntu, we can conclude that the share of PCs running GNU/Linux is a lot closer to 10% than it is to 1%. Indeed, I installed 135 seats of Ubuntu in a school which just count as a few installations because they are mostly thin clients.

Ubuntu gets more than 2300 hits per day on DistroWatch but Fedora, Mint, OpenSUSE, Mandrive, Debian and PCLinux all get over 1000 each accounting for three times as many hits as Ubuntu. That’s 10000 hits per day for the bunch of them. Multiply by 30 days and I can see how you can get 10% growth per month.

Then there’s LinuxQuestions.org that gets thousands of new members per month. Their logs show a high proportion of GNU/Linux users visiting the site:

http://jeremy.linuxquestions.org/2010/01/06/happy-new-year-browser-and-os-stats-for-2009/

Operating Systems
Windows 52.73%
Linux 40.94%
Macintosh 5.43%

What’s with the high proportion of that other OS? Are a lot of folks migrating and installing their own? Great! The diversity and number of ads on the site shows the advertisers like the traffic, too. There are 4 million posts in the forums and 430000 registered members.

I do not know with precision how many installations or users with GNU/Linux exist but it is huge and growing fast. It has been growing fast for years and will continue as far as I can tell. The conditions that caused people to switch are still around: malware, slowing down, re-re-reboots, price and freedom.

- Robert Pogson

Circular Arguments

As SCOG is circling the drain their arguments are becoming circular:

Without copyright ownership SCO cannot assert rights or bring suit to protect that technology against misuse by third parties, and without the ability to protect the technology, SCO cannot maintain its UNIX business or exercise the full ownership rights to exploit, develop, and defend the core UNIX source code. While SCO could physically continue to sell its UnixWare and OpenServer products without copyright ownership, SCO could not fully maintain its UnixWare business without the ability to enforce the copyrights in the core UNIX technology.


Judge, we need the copyrights in order to sue people for violating the copyrights, so give them to us so we can sue people … HAHAHAHA! That will fly when pigs do!

- Robert Pogson

Fed Up With PCs Not Working?

You are not alone. Consumers are stressed. IT people are stressed.

There is a simple solution that works, use more reliable equipment and software. If you use GNU/Linux you will be able to afford better equipment or build in redundancy. I switched to GNU/Linux ten years ago because my IT was failing hourly. After switching and using the same hardware, I had no failure in six months. That is the reason why people are willing to pay extra for Apple. They should switch to GNU/Linux instead. They will get the reliability of a UNIX-like OS, FLOSS, and suppliers taking pride in their work. The people who produce software that takes minutes to let you log in/out, forces re-re-reboots, invites strangers into your PC etc. obviously have no pride in their work. Instead, all they care about is milking you for money.

From an IT perspective my greatest stress ever was last year when I had to maintain a system against the frequent releases of zero-day malware. I had to personally persuade many machines to update. Some never would. I finally gave up worrying about it when x% of the machines were updated several days after new updates were released. Then I had to decide when to update/re-re-reboot the servers and in what order. That was always exciting as I never knew when one would not re-re-reboot.

This year is much more fun. The next XP machine that steps out of line gets paved with GNU/Linux. ;-)

- Robert Pogson

The Empire Strikes Back

GNU/Linux has been eating M$’s lunch in many markets. Rather than competing, M$ is threatening suit over patents supposedly violated by using GNU/Linux. This week it was HTC that decided to pay royalties to M$ for software patents. We can expect that M$ has a crew of extortionistssalesmen negotiating more such deals with any successful company using GNU/Linux. It could cost many millions of dollars to defend such a suit with no certainty of winning but one could negotiate a tolerable rate of royalty that will not break the budget. Thus it grows until one of M$’s divisions will be SCO-SourceM$-Patent-licensing.

This deal is a bit different than others we have read about. Google is involved. HTC uses Android, Google’s variation on GNU/Linux. M$ would love it if Google invoked the GPL to prohibit HTC distributing patent-encumbrance but it might be a different result if Google sued M$ for interfering in its business. Why doesn’t M$ sue Google for violating M$’s patents? They are afraid of Google. They know Google would fight back because Google needs Android to be free and pervasive. If M$ persuades the world of IT/gadgets that GNU/Linux is a liability to M$ the world may avoid GNU/Linux. Google will fight this eventually. They may consider it too small to matter at the moment but M$ will continue taxing GNU/Linux until the problem is too big to ignore.

I believe Bilski will be decided this year and software patents may be kicked into the garbage heap where they belong. Google may not have to do anything to deflate M$’s bubble. As we saw with Caldera/SCOG, becoming a litigation company is one of the signs of the proximate end of this charade. This could get interesting if it escalates. I expect suing lots of businesses will result in fewer businesses being customers of M$.

- Robert Pogson

Evil Has Multiple Heads

I have long viewed M$ as the Great Satan and tolerated Apple because Apple at least makes interesting products. They are also small enough that they are not an elephant in the living room. My opinion just changed. They are two heads of the same evil.

Being in business and doing well does not poke a hole in common sense and fairness, principles that all can live by. Businesses and their leaders must be held accountable for their actions. Apple just triggered a raid by police on the home of the editor of Gizmodo, a respectable source of information about lots of new gadgets, just like Apple sells. Where is the common sense in that? Why would any company attack an outfit bent on spreading news about their products, giving free advertising? Where is the respect for the constitutional right to be free from arbitrary search and seizure?

Apple has done some FLOSS-like things by opening some code and using a UNIX OS underneath and they use ARM but their ethics stink.

GIZMODO! GIZMODO! GIZMODO! GIZMODO! GIZMODO! GIZMODO!

Take that, Apple. Die, Steve Jobs!

Now that I have ventilated I can comment on some things that I really hated about Apple even before this final straw. Trying to extend copyright protection in their OS (which is a product many like) via the EULA to require running on their hardware is a huge non-free aspect of their operation. A business that produces a good OS should be happy that customers run it on any hardware. Apple uses this leverage to bless their hardware and to make the job of providing drivers for hardware easier for them. They can also charge an unnaturally higher price for less capable hardware just because it it “blessed by Jobs”. I like competition in software and hardware. Apple stifles competition. If IBM had blessed Apple with a monopoly in the old days, they would be just as bad as M$. They are now in the scale of evil but smaller in economic impact.

We should not ignore Apple any longer as the enemy of our enemy. Apple is not our friend. Three years ago, I enlightened my brother about the merits of GNU/Linux as compared to MacOS. For schools, there is not much comparison. Apple’s products cost much more than free software and hardware. They do not really work any better either. Schools do not need software whose supplier has made a deal with the devil to be allowed to run on Apple’s hardware.

Update Carla Schroder digs deeper and gives her opinion about the incident between Apple and Gizmodo.

Update 2 ABC News gets it right.

- Robert Pogson

Bugs in Debian GNU/Linux

The boys and girls at Debian GNU/Linux are squashing bugs at a remarkable rate. If they keep this up, Squeeze could be out by Q3 2010. Only a few weeks ago, it was looking like Q1 2011. Squeeze is quite usable for me already. I can dodge a black-screen bug by avoiding VT switching which my users do not need anyway.

Section ServerFlags
Option “DontVTSwitch” “True”
Option “DontZap” “True”
EndSection

is all I need in /etc/X11/xorg.conf to dodge the problem. I still do not know whether this is a problem with KMS, Kernel Mode Switching, or X. It affects both Intel and ATI chipsets here. I find 141 hits on http://bugs.debian.org for “black screen”. I had an idea that the Linux kernel was the problem because of recent work on direct rendering, KMS etc. but I do not have the resources to test everything. I could not dodge the problem by installing the latest kernel and several configuration options but avoiding VT switching seems to work. At the rate Debian is fixing bugs, these should get a lot of attention soon.

- Robert Pogson

Prevalence of Malware

M$ reports that 7/1000 of PCs scanned show evidence of malware. Let’s see. 7/1000 X 1300 million is 9 million infected PCs globally. Weren’t there more than that compromised in a single quarter last year? Yes, there were. Some report 2.5 to 13% of PCs compromised in various countries. Panda Security claims 23% of PCs with updated anti-virus software are infected. M$ is out to lunch or has a much different view of infection than others. Perhaps they view a lot of malware as normal.

When I came to my present employment I found by scanning that about half the sick PCs were infected. We restored to factory as best we could, updated and backed-up machines to cure as much as we could. Even with a really difficult anti-virus/firewall regime we still get a few infections. Less than 23% for sure, but then I can only detect what our scanners can detect. I have never detected anything but a test virus on a GNU/Linux PC.

Whether we have infections or not we spend a lot of time and money preventing them. The best way to prevent them is to run GNU/Linux since a tiny fraction of viruses are aimed at that OS. There are a lot of reasons to use GNU/Linux but this one alone is sufficient.

An example: Last night I was about to leave the building when a teacher who was working late on reports flagged me down to look at an XP PC that would not print. It ran terribly slowly. I had to kill many processes just in order to run diagnostics like task-manager. The print queue was plugged but everything seemed normal. I could browse to the network printer. I started a scan for malware and found nothing. The resident anti-malware software was installed, updated and working normally, too. I booted SystemRescueCD and it failed mid-way. I could not boot at all from a USB device. I then examined the BIOS setting and found nothing out of the ordinary. I did a factory-reset of the BIOS and found I could now boot from USB devices and the CD. Memtest86 showed nothing. I backed up the user’s files. When I booted into the OS on the hard drive, the system immediately started printing to the network printer. I have no idea what the corruption of the BIOS was that was not detected by the checksum. This was possibly not malware but I wasted hours trying to detect malware. On a system running GNU/Linux I likely would not have scanned for malware except as a last resort, and I would have had no trouble with lock-in applications so a restoration would have worked very well if needed. How many hours do you waste every year fighting malware? I don’t want to waste a second of my life doing that. I run GNU/Linux to minimize that task.

I have only worked here a few months but I have struggled a lot with malware. Patching that other OS, fire-walling, scanning, etc. all seem futile. The best solution I have is paving the OS with GNU/Linux. Restoring to a snapshot of the drive from an earlier time is second best.

- Robert Pogson

War of the Hair-driers

AMD and Intel are producing some 6-core processors … for desktops. Intel is selling some for $1k. AMD is selling some for less. The market for these things is tiny, only a few percent of users have any use for such things. Heavy graphics and number-crunching are tiny markets including gaming. Even most gamers are quite satisfied with lesser processors.

I wonder what the fascination is for 125W CPUs. PCs in my school rarely go over 10% utilization unless they are running that other OS when 40% is not unusual. That is 32bits at 2.x gHz. These things AMD is selling can punch up to 3.6 gHz for pulses on 6 64-bit cores…

For the same cost as one of these chips, these guys could be producing a huge number of ARM chips. I am not sure what the ratio would be but it must be 100:1. They could sell them for $30 and make several times as much money as they do selling the one hair-drier. Please, fellows, keep the hair-driers on the server please. Sell us small cheap chips, please. There is probably a market for 1000 million small cheap computers that you are not reaching with your current products. For every server there is a need for >100 client computers. Sell what people need, not what Wintel wants.

- Robert Pogson

Jason Perlow and FaceBook

After his FaceBook account was compromised, he assumed it was malware on that other OS that snagged his account information. He has decided to jail that other OS and run GNU/Linux mostly except for a few apps in a virtual machine.

I think his decision is sound but the reasoning may be faulty. Depending on how FaceBook was compromised, it may or may not have been the fault of that other OS. Malware artists are extremely sophisticated these days because there is big money to be made in spam and they may have found a way to compromise an account without hacking into his client machines. His router may have been hacked, for instance, or his ISP or FaceBook’s ISP etc. Combined with the recent notice about 1.5 million FaceBook accounts offered for sale, I suspect it is most likely that FaceBook was compromised somehow. They are running F5 BIG-IP which has had some problems before. Opening a server to the Internet is a bold move which sometimes fails.

- Robert Pogson

Compound Vulnerabilities

Most everyone agrees that, if you are going to run that other OS you should at least:

  1. run a good firewall
  2. run a good anti-malware tool
  3. patch regularly

That is over and above the usual stuff about back-ups and disaster-plans which should be part of any IT system. The back-ups and disaster-plans were exercised this weekend by many customers of McAfee. They got into trouble because they were following #2, above. McAfee zapped an important system file and XP SP3 was toast. A lot of customers will be angry with McAfee and demand compensation and/or change suppliers. Why aren’t they angry at M$ who makes them work so hard just to have IT? This must be the “last straw” for a lot of people. Pity the folks who have not completely automated their recovery. They had to visit each machine and re-image. XP SP3 is everywhere. McAfee is everywhere, too.

Latest 10-K filing:”If our products do not work properly, we could experience negative publicity, damage to our reputation, legal liability, declining sales and increased expenses.

Failure to protect against security breaches. Because of the complexity of our products, we have in the past found errors in versions of our products that were not detected before first introduced, or in new versions or enhancements, and we may find such errors in the future. Because of the complexity of the environments in which our products operate, our products may have errors or defects that customers identify after deployment. Failures, errors or defects in our products could result in security breaches or compliance violations for our customers, disruption or damage to their networks or other negative consequences and could result in negative publicity, damage to our reputation, declining sales, increased expenses and customer relation issues. Such failures could also result in product liability damage claims against us by our customers, even though our license agreements with our customers typically contain provisions designed to limit our exposure to potential product liability claims. Furthermore, the correction of defects could divert the attention of engineering personnel from our product development efforts. A major security breach at one of our customers that is attributable to or not preventable by our products could be very damaging to our business. Any actual or perceived breach of network or computer security at one of our customers, regardless of whether the breach is attributable to our products, could adversely affect the market’s perception of our security products and our stock price.

False alarms. Our system protection software products have in the past, and these products and our intrusion protection products may at times in the future, falsely detect viruses or computer threats that do not actually exist. These false alarms, while typical in the security industry, would likely impair the perceived reliability of our products and may therefore adversely impact market acceptance of our products. In addition, we have in the past been subject to litigation claiming damages related to a false alarm, and similar claims may be made in the future.

Total net revenue
$ 1,927,332,000

The world is laying out tens of billions of dollars to McAfee and many other businesses to secure that other OS. Why is M$ not held responsible for doing that? Is it because no one trusts M$?

Between the patching, the re-re-reboots, the war against malware, and disasters like this one, wouldn’t the world be much further ahead to use GNU/Linux instead? If GNU/Linux lacks features that users of IT feel is important, they could spend their money on improving GNU/Linux instead of keeping that other OS alive, sometimes. All these billions could be put to better use.

- Robert Pogson

$3 Licences Anyone?

The US Supreme Court will consider a case of imported copyrighted works undercutting domestic prices. The suit involves re-selling products bought in China, legally, in the USA at much lower prices than the copyright holder charges in the USA. The first-sale doctrine holds that once a product is sold, the copyright holder has no further claim on it since the copyright holder was paid properly what he wanted to be paid and should not be paid again for a subsequent sale.

For a long time M$ sold licences the same price everywhere but lately, in order to block un-licensed software and GNU/Linux, they have seriously cut prices in places like China. If SCOTUS decides that the first-sale rule applies to importations, M$ will face stiff competition by importations of its own products. M$ could respond by not selling in foreign markets, or cutting prices globally. Both would seriously impact the bottom line but would finally force the monopoly to compete on price everywhere and not just to stifle competition. It is silly to charge $100+ in the USA for stuff that sells for $3 in China. They could modify the EULA, perhaps (if this is not covered already), but on what basis would the BSA prosecute?

BSA “Your honour, Joe, here bought our product, legally, in China for $3 but brought it here. We want you to order him to pay $150 plus damages.”

Judge: “Why? You were already paid. Why should you be paid twice?”

Where will it all end? Life becomes so hard, eventually, when you try to deceive people.

- Robert Pogson

Intel Bets on Wintel

Intel is ramping up the price and features on Atom chips believing that folks want/need hotter CPUs in the netbooks… I find that sad. CPUs are already idling with single cores in Atomic netbooks. I know. I had one working in my lab after installing Debian GNU/Linux on it. Top is a revealing command… The key feature of Wintel over the last ten years is that people will pay more for features they do not use, like DDR3/dual-core in a netbook.

The writing is on the wall. People want netbooks for portability and long battery life. DDR3 won’t do that. Dual core can help, if you cut the clock-speed. A hotter CPU just wastes more power. ARM will eat these things for lunch. ARM does use multiple cores these days but each core runs a sub-process doing something useful, not an idle-loop.

Wintel is terrified of the ever-falling price of hardware that is a consequence of open standards and Moore’s Law. They need monopoly and the ability to dictate to the market. That is changing now that ARM is hot enough and GNU/Linux is free.

Wintel just does not get “small is beautiful” and “cloud”-computing. We do not need more powerful CPUs on clients. We need fanless clients with lower power consumption doing what we do now for less. ARM gets that. GNU/Linux gets that. More powerful CPUs belong on servers and clusters of servers in some room where folks can wear ear-plugs and cooling water is available. We do not need them on the bus going to school.

I used to be a fan of AMD as a competitor of Intel but they have sold their souls to Wintel, too, by not even bothering with good CPUs for netbooks. Their Geode was developed by others and is very long in the tooth.

Two netbooks are due for release by Lenovo and ASUS driven by Qualcomm’s Snapdragon ARM processor. There are already a few out with earlier versions but these will do anything required of a netbook, including HD video.

There are already billions of ARM processors in the market doing a good job for less. Wintel is on notice that the gravy-train is ending but they continue to produce bloated products for a market increasingly informed of choice. I predict ARM netbooks will sell like hotcakes and that by the end of the year, ARM will enter the mainstream PC markets: desktops and notebooks. There is no reason why that will not happen. If the established players will not produce those products others will. Performance/price will rise dramatically and leave Wintel behind within a couple of years. 22nm production will include ARM. ARM will be able to run larger caches then and run full-blown GNU/Linux desktops quite well. In the meantime the embedded-style systems will grow in popularity. Simple is attractive. Complex is not.

PS: M$’s new Kin phones will also guzzle more juice. HAHAHAHA! This is like watching a train-wreck in slow motion… I don’t get the ‘phone at all let alone cordless ones but my son has one running ARM. He runs it for days guiding his driving, phoning home a lot, etc. More juice is ugly. Ugly.

- Robert Pogson

Open Letter to Chinook SD

I was shocked to read about the audit of Chinook SD by the BSA. Money is tight and should not be wasted on suppliers who are so costly. If Chinook SD looked at its guiding principals:

  • Student Centered – Our decisions are focused on strengthening student learning and meeting the needs of children and youth.
  • Collaborative Relationships –
    Our relationships are positive and cooperative to increase system effectiveness.
  • Visionary – Our actions are positive and strategically proactive for a culture of growth.
  • Accountable – Our commitment to systematic monitoring and accountability ensures prudent use of human and financial resources.

it is clear that “proprietary” software with very restrictive licences is incompatible with education. The solution I recommend is Free Software. In schools, I use Debian GNU/Linux. The licence costs $0 and permits use, examination, modification and distribution of the software on as many computers as needed and the software can be shared with students and parents. The software scales beautifully to installations of many thousands of PCs and a single source, mirrored on servers world-wide, provides tested and properly licensed software in 25000 packages for every need of a teacher or student. The web application, Moodle, that Chinook SD uses, is an example of Free Software. The same benefits obtained by using it on the servers results from using Free Software on the client PCs, software that works for you not against you. Free Software is a cooperative project of the world and is much bigger than any company. There are hundreds of thousands of developers contributing and Debian GNU/Linux alone has millions of installations and a thousand developers. IBM, RedHat, and Novell all help organizations implement GNU/Linux with roll-outs of thousands of PCs.

The most efficient use of GNU/Linux is on terminal servers. Client PCs can be thin clients costing as little as $100 per fanless box. Almost any server makes a good terminal server with 512 MB RAM + 100 MB RAM per active client. A single server can run hundreds of users these days. The thin clients are as reliable as telephones and the server is a single machine to maintain instead of hundreds. Performance is better, too, because servers can afford fast arrays of storage devices where it is not feasible for individual PCs to have fast storage because of the cost. Savings in maintenance, drives, power supplies, cases and power consumption are very large. For video, it is still best to use a typical thick client but one per classroom may be sufficient.

I hope Chinook SD takes this event as an opportunity to change for the better and to avoid such incidents in the future. Proprietary software leaves Chinook SD open to audits at any time, a huge unfunded liability. Free Software eliminates that risk, saves money and increases performance.

Thank you,

Robert Pogson
Have server, will travel…

- Robert Pogson

Debian Squeeze Bug Count

Wow! the 900 developers and friends of Debian GNU/Linux are really eating up the bugs. They are down below 700 bugs now and they are not yet at package-freeze. If they keep this up, they will release this year. I have been using Squeeze in production and the black-screen problem I was getting is gone. I am not quite sure which package or bug that got fixed, but my terminal server and test machines have good screens now. I will dist-upgrade to squeeze again to see how that goes. I still have not distributed all my “new” machines so I could put squeeze on the remainder.

- Robert Pogson

M$ Sues its Loyal Customers

An insurance company in China was found to have 450 unlicenced copies of some of M$’s software. A court awarded $706 a copy, $318000. The insurance company had negotiated with M$ and rejected $30 a copy as “irrational”. I would bet Free Software is looking pretty good to those involved now.

The fact that the customer thought $30 a copy was too much should tell us something. GNU/Linux and home-grown apps is the way to go if they need special stuff. How many programmer-years (in China) for $318000? Do the maths. Just as the prosecution of a school principal in Russia prompted a wave of migration. This judgment in China will have the opposite effect desired by M$. The Chinese will opt for GNU/Linux instead of that other OS. It costs less and is free of legal entanglements.

M$ never learns. LTSP took off in education when M$ pushed to audit schools in the USA. Russian schools adopted GNU/Linux.

- Robert Pogson

Apples

I love apples. I have a case in my refrigerator still crisp.

Apple computers are not my cup of tea, however except that Apple is kind enough to publish unit sales. For the recent quarter, they are 2.943 million. Good for them. About 80 million PCs were sold in the quarter so their share is 3.7%, a far cry from NetApplications’ 5.3%. Either Macs last longer or the numbers are not representative of reality. Where is the other 2.4%? Could it be with GNU/Linux? I think so. NetApplications adjusted their methods when M$ was beginning to look sad, supposedly to correct regional imbalance. That knocked Apple down a bit in their estimation but strangely, pumped up M$ even though we know Apple and M$ are very solid in the USA and weaker elsewhere. Apple’s regional numbers show that, too.

Other sources give GNU/Linux a much larger share but still not close to what it could be.

- Robert Pogson

Maybe I Should Open A Fix-IT Shop

I came upon this story about a customer of a fix-it shop asking about GNU/Linux. That would be cool. Here people ask me to fix their PCs and about half the time are grateful for GNU/Linux. It pays to advertise. The angst people have with that other OS seems to vanish when they get clean functional software from a FLOSS repository.

I wouldn’t want to disappoint people expecting that I could magically fix M$’s messes. How should I word it? Ye Olde Fix-IT Shoppe –

  • paving over that other OS our specialty
  • we don’t do that other OS
  • Free Software to free you and your PC
  • GNU/Linux shared

?

For an advertising campaign I thought I should give away cartons of Debian GNU/Linux installation CDs. Folks who know what to do with them would be grateful and those who did not might give me a call. Shucks… I hate telephones. I like my OS preemptive, not my life. How to ration my time?

- Robert Pogson

Netbooks?

M$ just filed its quarterly report ending 2010-3-31. It is about the same as the same quarter in 2008, for “client”. At that time they were pumping money at stemming the tide of GNU/Linux netbooks to the tune of $1 billion. Is that continuing? Are they willing to tell investors that they squander $4B annually trying to hold back the tide?

The unit sales and revenue have risen over last year because of the rebound in sales of PCs but there is no magical increase in average selling price even with the wonderful “7″ OS. The world can double and redouble production of netbooks. Where will the profit in “client” be then?

Revenue for “client” this quarter was $4.273B. The world produced about 80 million PCs in that period for an ASP of $53. Of course, the OEMs took a similar cut but the ASP is declining even as M$ claims the up-selling is working…

I see this as a house of cards. The world is moving to smaller and cheaper PCs. The promotion of “thin” notebooks instead of netbooks has delayed this migration a bit but thin clients are taking off. There is absolutely no need for that other OS on a thin client if the applications are running elsewhere. In defense, M$ is pushing terminal services and CALs but some will not be fooled. Chucking licensing fees is a benefit of GNU/Linux terminal servers not to be overlooked. A CAL also costs less than the ASP of a licence but they make up some of that difference on the server licences. With web applications advancing, there will be less need of those.

Nope. Those who cling to XP would rather move to thin clients and those who do migrate to “7″ will not want to chuck those fabulous quad-core/huge gB RAM machines any time soon. From whence will the ever-increasing licensing revenue come in these end-days? Nowhere. There is no MIPS-eating application that can max out these processors and be widely used.

Do the maths. The number of PCs produced annually is about 325 million. The number of PCs in use annually increases by about 100 million and 225 million are scrapped. There are about 1.3 billion PCs in use. Thus the average age at which a PC is scrapped is 6 years. With the current batch of new machines and the emergence of thin clients the number can rise to 10 years costing M$ a netbook-sized hit. If the reader does not think more powerful/rugged PCs are kept longer, compare it to cars. We kept our Cadillac for 15 years. We kept our Hyundai for 4 years. M$ can switch to expiring licences but the customers can switch to GNU/Linux.

UPDATE: There’s a similar take in this article on El Reg.


“It’s generally believed the recession in the US is over, but according to Klein, sales cycles are lengthening, and one investor sounded genuinely shocked. Klein explained that Microsoft has only started to see the beginning of a business hardware-refresh cycle. “

- Robert Pogson

Crippled PCs Running That Other OS

When I read reports of thousands of PCs disabled by anti-virus foul-ups, I rejoice that FLOSS is replacing XP around here. It is true that the user of XP or other versions of that other OS is helpless. He cannot run the PC without anti-virus software for the threats are too real and he cannot run the PC with anti-virus software because it is just malware in another form. The A-V we use around here is very intrusive and I will be glad to be done with it. It firewalls, filters and blocks applications not on approved list. Google-chrome browser is banned at the moment! $#!!!^&&!

The truth is that A-V software may be able to stop or remove malware but if it is not always “on” it cannot prevent real damage and being “on” means it sucks the life out of PCs. I suspect the poor performance of our PCs is partly due to sniffing every file on access. What a recipe for slowing down a PC… Yet, that is what Wintel wants, a MIPS-eating application akin to 3D-graphics and video requiring ever more power PCs just to do what we used to do on less powerful machines. The sooner we finish our migration to GNU/Linux, the better.

- Robert Pogson

ARMed Apple? No Way!

Apple has used ARM chips. There are rumours that Apple wishes to buy ARM. They can afford to make the purchase, but can the world afford to allow it? It is one thing to diversify and to expand. It is quite another to sabotage the only real competition to Apple and Wintel. As an investment, it might mean they would promote ARM or raise prices for copies a bit. As an anti-competitive move, they could raise prices to prohibitive levels or keep the technology for themselves.

ARM is as close as you can get to “openness” in hardware and Apple is about as close as you can get to “closed” in hardware. It is possible for change to happen but Jobs has not shown any inclination. It would be ironic if Apple killed off the only real competition to Wintel and then suffered as a result. So far, Apple has moved under the radar of anti-competition laws but such a purchase might put them above the radar. They would certainly have more than 50% of the gadget-CPU market.

I think, if Apple has a legitimate business interest in ARM, they could invest in a meaningful way and promote ARM seriously. They would get a good return that way and we, who wish freedom from Wintel, could rejoice. If Apple tries to take it all, someone or everyone should fight back. ARM is its own monopoly but it has shown to be enlightened, going for volume rather than highest profit per unit. Volume is good for everyone except the competition, Wintel. Apple could use ARM to fight Wintel on another front. This could be a big moment in 2010, the Year of ARM.

M$ has diversified into mice, keyboards, games, etc. Perhaps Apple will diversify into useful gadgets not necessarily encumbered with MacOS and Apple’s logo. Apple was wise enough to slip BSD UNIX under MacOS. What will they promote for ARM? GNU/Linux? Chrome? Their own stuff? We live in interesting times.

Of course this could just be a rumour for a slow news day… ;-)

- Robert Pogson

Liberation of a Tank

Some battles are set-piece with every move planned ahead but when I was faced with a Compaq Deskpro 4000 in the InstallFest, there were a lot of surprises:

  • the thing was barely bootable
  • never did find the BIOS
  • not until the next day did we discover it had a second CD drive which was bootable – the slurpee kind that I thought only Apple was crazy enough to use

Even though this thing was built in 1999, it had a Pentium II cpu at 266 MHz. It must have fallen out of a time-warp to find Lose ME. Even Goodbye-microsoft.com could not run on it ( I tried multiple ways to boot the installer until I discovered the “crack” was actually a drive). With only 128 MB RAM and 3.2gB hard drive this thing is slow by any standard. It had so many pop-ups and stuff running that it was almost unusable with LoseME so GNU/Linux was the way to go. I chose Lenny thinking that XFCE4 would help. It did but it still was painfully slow. The addition of XFCE4 to the GNOME stuff put on by default filled the drive. I deleted stuff wholesale and cleaned out downloads to give 500 MB free after restoring a back-up of files.

We never did find the ISA modem but alsaconf found the the sound card and the thing can play on an internal speaker. This thing weighs about half a tonne. While we won, I do not feel victorious. I am just too tired. Once we got it to boot from CD, an I/O error killed the first try at installing Lenny. That spoiled my whole day.
Update: In the heat of battle, I forgot to ask the customer how they connect to the web. It turned out that they use dial-up. The modem was not installed in a slot on the motherboard so I hoped it was connected to the serial port. It was! ln -s /dev/ttyS3 /dev/modem was all I had to do for configuration. wvdial found it by default. kppp had the /dev/modem setting already. I put in MTS’s dial-up number and DNS settings and it worked. I will return the tank to the customer today with much improved software.

- Robert Pogson



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My Mission

My observations and opinions about IT are based on 40 years of use in science and technology and lately, in education. I like IT that is fast, cost-effective and reliable. I do not care whether my solution is the same as yours. I like to think for myself.

My first use of GNU/Linux in 2001 was so remarkably better than what I had been using, I feel it is important work to share GNU/Linux with the world. I have been blessed by working in schools where students and school systems have benefited by good, modular software easily installed in most systems.

I have shown GNU/Linux to thousands of students and hundreds of teachers over the years and will continue in some way doing that until I die in spite of the opposition.

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