Archive for October, 2009

IBM, Canonical and Thin Clients

Well, it’s not only about thin clients but IBM and Canonical are pushing a desktop system that is better than that other OS. It’s a great solution for large business, small business already using some FLOSS, government and education, just the folks I would recommend use GNU/Linux on the desktop.

see
IBM and Canonical Launch Linux- and Cloud-based Desktop Software in the U.S.

There it is. Blatant competition against the monopoly in this week of the release of “7″. Systems will be able to use their old hardware as thin clients in highly collaborative web-based environments. This is very similar to the strategies I have employed in schools for years although I did not use cloud apps, just stuff on the server.

That should put to rest any idea that GNU/Linux is not competitive on the desktop. If the 60% or so of PCs using XP have a reliable migration path to GNU/Linux for half the cost of using that other OS, a lot will take it. Perhaps not this year, but next year this will start. I expect the extended life of hardware will be key. This is just a better way to do IT.

- Robert Pogson

Whither Goest Thou, ASUS?

ASUS created quite a stir when they enhanced the evolution of the netbook by bringing out a successful line of eeePCs in 2007, running GNU/Linux. They disappointed in 2008 when they cut back on GNU/Linux and drank the XP Koolaid from M$.

Now, we find they list GNU/Linux as an OS for the new eeePC 1008HA Clamshell. They also have a download for the source code.

What are you doing ASUS? Has the deal with M$ expired? Is GNU/Linux from the competition eating your lunch? Could this be hard bargaining before “7″?

- Robert Pogson

iPhones as Tagged Fish

If a biologist wishes to count fish in a lake, he can do it two ways:

  • harvest/count each one, or
  • tag a known number of fish and go fishing later

The iPhones are everywhere, in 80 countries. We know how many there are. They are like tagged fish.

NetApplications counts iPhone hits in its web stats. Lately, they are reporting

  • .95% GNU/Linux
  • 5.12% MacOS
  • .35% iPhone

Let us do the maths as biologists might. According to Apple’s  production numbers there have been 26 million iPhones sold. If the ratio of iPhone to GNU/Linux holds true we can estimate the number of GNU/Linux surfers out there as

26000000*.95/.35 = 70000000

remarkably close to M$’s estimates of 7% of PCs. On top of that must be many GNU/Linux thin clients connected to terminal servers of that other OS and folks changing their UserAgent string to fool silly web sites. Since the iPhone is an expensive toy, I expect it is not numerous in the same parts of the world where Macs are not numerouse, most of it. Thus I would put 70 million, about 6% of PCs as the lowest estimate of GNU/Linux share. Why, then, does NetApplications rate GNU/Linux so low? They must have a seriously biased sample. We knew that already as MacOS share was shown much larger than Apple’s unit shipments would indicate.

Those who claim GNU/Linux has a 1% share or smaller are fooling themselves. GNU/Linux is mainstream and continues a healthy rate of growth. I expect this to continue for years as eventually retailers will be forced to offer GNU/Linux more widely by demand of customers. I expect anti-trust enforcement may reach OEMs shortly. Interfering with GNU/Linux with OEMs and retailers attempts at selling GNU/Linux wreaks of illegal tied/exclusive dealing. We should see. It could be that the consumers and independent OEMs may settle the matter without enforcement. M$ just has not enough money to pay everyone off. Their loyal partners will diversify as soon as the cash cow dries up. Another few down quarters for the client division should do that.

- Robert Pogson

Netbooks by the Numbers

I hate monopoly. When AMD declined to enter the netbook market claiming they were a flash in the pan they left the field to Intel, VIA and ARM. I keep thinking of specialized netbook chips coming off those 600 mm wafers…

Well, netbooks are not a flash in the pan. They are here for the forseeable future and doing well. Recent numbers from Display Research:

  • ASP of netbooks is $361
  • netbooks are 22% of notebook units shipped
  • year/year growth of 300% units shipped
  • netbooks are 11% of notebook revenue

Ouch! That ASP really makes it difficult to sell licences for that other OS at “full price”. This means M$ will have to continue to bleed in the quarter where “7″ is released, or cede the market for netbooks to GNU/Linux. If they continue the discounting, even their devoted followers will find it less expensive to hang a keyboard/mousr/monitor on a netbooks and carry on, futher increasing the share of the netbook. Is that a sustainable business model? Even Ballmer says free is not a business model. It will be interesting to see the price structure after “7″ is released. It will be interesting to check back in January, 2010.

The big question is whether or not M$ can afford to allow more than 30 million more PCs to run GNU/Linux each year indefinitely. M$ cannot afford to continue buying the loyalty of OEMs if they drop their prices. There simply will not be enough money to go around soon.

I expect M$ will delay the inevitable by giving better deals for “7″ on netbooks than other platforms. More will switch to netbooks, and, in 2010, M$ will be forced to retrench, either by cutting money-losing lines or ceding the netbook to GNU/Linux. It will only take a few quarters of this situation for the dam to burst. We should know by 1H 2010. By then ARM will have kicked in, too. If M$ tries to raise the price of netbooks, ARM will explode.

- Robert Pogson

Et tu, Carla

Carla Schroder who is one of my favourite writers on the web has just published a criticism of Mark Shuttleworth for remarks he made during a presentation at LinuxCon 2009, “Mark Shuttleworth’s Community Has No Women“. I have watched the video and find it obvious that Carla has gone out of her way to find sexism in the presentation. The presentation is an inspiring message about

  • Release cadence
  • Quality
  • Design

for FLOSS. It was given to an audience that was largely male. In the Q&A that followed, a large portion of the audience was scanned and it was probably 90% male.

Indications of sexism found included:

  • use of the word “guys”, as in “KDE guys”
  • mention of producing software that would work for mothers and grandmothers, and
  • “explaining to girls” how FLOSS works.

Carla must have used a microscope. I did not see or hear a single sexist comment from Shuttleworth except perhaps leaning on the word “release” as it has other meanings than releasing a new build of a FLOSS project or a complete distribution of software.

The “guy” thing was perhaps the most easily spotted word but it is not hard to spot Shuttleworth’s Brit/S. African accent. Guy Fawkes was a famous insurgent who tried and failed to blow up the British Parliament in the old days. Children in the British Commonwealth of countries celebrate Guy Fawkes Day by dressing up, parading, hanging effigies etc. “guy” is not necessarily a male person but a buddy, fellow, etc.

“The word “guy” subsequently came to mean “an odd-looking fellow”, after the grotesque effigies of Fawkes. In the mid-19th century United States this meaning broadened to refer to any man, and ultimately any person, with no pejorative connotation.”

3. A man or young man; a fellow; — usually contrasted with gals or girls as, it was fun for both the guys and gals; the guys were watching football while the girls played bridge. [Informal]
[PJC]

4. A member of a group of either sex, usually a friend or comrade; — usually used in the pl.; as, tell the guys to come inside; are any of you guys interested in a game of tennis?. [Informal]
[PJC]

Shuttleworth did once use the “guys and girls” combination but that does not necessarily mean he was excluding girls in other parts.

The apparent lack of interest in the details of IT for many women explains the “explaining to girls” reference. Almost every man knows that. There was laughter from the audience at the comment. I live in a home that was dominated by females, a wife and two daughters. Not one of them had any interest in computers except how to e-mail/chat/browse. My wife has used a PC for twenty years and still cannot set up a spreadsheet even though she uses them constantly to enter/analyze data. My son placed second in a national competition for computer geeks when he was 15. My daughters use PCs frequently but are not interested in the latest technology or details. That’s just the way things are. It’s not sexism. Girls choose other interests as reflected in the audience for Shuttleworth’s remarkable presentation.

All this comment about sexism detracts from the thought-provoking and insightful presentation. Shuttleworth really knows what he wants and how to get it. He can sway audiences. He knows the strengths and deficiencies of FLOSS. He strongly suggested that design be the first step/stage of a release even before cadence and quality. Ubuntu has a team of designers. That is reflected in the popularity of the distro. Design is a place where women can and should have a more natural interest. Women I know will fuss endlessly over details of colour/composition/shape/arrangement/size which many men just gloss over. Women I know can tell from 100m that my socks do not match sometimes. Since more than half of users of PCs are female, contributions by women in this area should be sought out. Carping about imagined sexism contributes nothing.

Women are a part of the Ubuntu Community:

  • Jane Silber – Chief Operating Officer
    Jane joined Canonical Ltd in 2004, prior to the first release of Ubuntu. Based in London, she currently oversees all business development and operational activities, to include customer support and services, marketing and partnerships, as well as the corporate financial and administrative functions.
    Prior to joining Canonical, Jane was Vice President of Command and Control Systems at General Dynamics C4 Systems, and her early career included doing artificial intelligence research and product development for Teijin Ltd in Yokohama, Japan. She holds degrees from the University of Oxford, Vanderbilt University and Haverford College.
    (from Canonical’s site).
  • The Ubuntu Community includes women and encourages them. In fact, if the statistic of 1.8% of women in FLOSS is accurate, Ubuntu’s 2.4% puts them above average.
  • The Ubuntu Community has lots of opportunities for women to contribute whether or not they are into code development.
  • The Ubuntu Forums seem a very friendly place. You would be hard-pressed to find a more welcoming place for women. Searching for the “f” word found no hits.

Could he? Should he have included more politically correct terminology in his presentation? He could have. I believe it was fine as it was. The presentation was made on his feet, with only occasional references to notes so I believe he did a fine job considering sexism/opportunities for women was not the subject of the presentation. He did mention specific means of improving releases of FLOSS, with better quality and better design, all of which could be good roles for women. He said nothing that suggests he is the least bit interested in excluding women.

- Robert Pogson



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My Mission

My observations and opinions about IT are based on 40 years of use in science and technology and lately, in education. I like IT that is fast, cost-effective and reliable. I do not care whether my solution is the same as yours. I like to think for myself.

My first use of GNU/Linux in 2001 was so remarkably better than what I had been using, I feel it is important work to share GNU/Linux with the world. I have been blessed by working in schools where students and school systems have benefited by good, modular software easily installed in most systems.

I have shown GNU/Linux to thousands of students and hundreds of teachers over the years and will continue in some way doing that until I die in spite of the opposition.

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