Normally, I stick to information technology in this blog but I have flown hundreds of thousands of miles in my life in many kinds of planes and a helicopter so I have intense feeling about air travel.
The destruction of the plane of Air France over the Atlantic a couple of weeks ago is a great tragedy for all involved but it is also a great failure of mechanical technology. Like many such disasters, it likely involved an improbable combination of failures that took the plane outside the cone of survivability. A recent article, ”
Intact tail fin offers clue to Air France crash
” seems to have pegged one of the critical points of failure, over-stressing the tail fin. There have been several crashes involving similar failures but this article points out that a combination of assaults can still bring down planes.
Normally, planes are designed to fly in a smooth stream of air and the rudder is just part of the drag the tail provides to keep the plane going nose-forward. In a cross-wind landing, the rudder might be used to offset a turn of a few degrees from nose-on. Pilots practise many hours getting the feel of their planes countering such effects automatically. It seem likely, that in the turbulence of a storm over the Atlantic, the rudder may have been applied inappropriately breaking the tail fin off. Without that drag and stabilization, the fuselage may have broken apart by turning normal drag into a component of 500 mph cross-wind. The fuselage is strong and light, like an egg shell. As long as forces are distributed uniformly/smoothly, it stays together, but when turned too far from nose-forward it can collapse and tear apart. The distribution of tail fin, bodies, and other debris suggests this is what caused the plane to break up.
The layers of failures that got the plane into this situation still remain unknown but trying to punch through a storm instead of going around may have been the first. Radar can spot precipitation but not winds (except Doppler radar) and the crew may have bitten off more than they could chew. The storm reached far above flight level and was part of a chain so punching through may have seemed like the best strategy with the information available. Uncertainty about the reliability of the air-speed sensors (pitot tubes) may have been a factor, killing computer control in the face of conflicting information but computers had been tasked with limiting stress on the rudder…
Let us hope the black boxes are found to provide sufficient information to describe the behaviours of the equipment and the air with greater certainty. Let us hope this teaches humanity some lessons to prevent future failures. It seems past tragedies were not enough. While the media have made the assumption that people died promptly, it is quite likely that many died a horrible death being mutiliated by strong aerodynamic forces on pieces of fuselage or falling over a minute from high altitude in darkness. We should take no comfort from fuzzy ideas of a quick death during the destruction of a plane. We must resolve to prevent such tragedies in the future.
I know automobiles kill and maim far more than planes but planes have a unique ability to allow one to contemplate imminent death. It has been a recurring nightmare in my life. Now that I travel less, I hope that I will never be in a situation like that. My sympathies are with people who fly.
UPDATE 2009-07-02
A preliminary report as reported in the news media gives some semi-solid information:
- based on study of debris the BEA is leaning to the conclusion that the plane broke up on a belly-flop in the sea
- the BEA was unable to access autopsies done by Brazil
- Senegal and Brazil give contradictory accounts of the handoff by ATC.
The first conclusion seems off-base to me. If the plane flopped, there should have been a few survivors. No life preservers were deployed. What happened to the half-load of fuel that would have been on board? Why were bodies scattered over 50 miles a few hous after the crash?
One of the clues was damage to the shelves in the galley. If the galley had separated at altitude and fallen in that orientation at impact, would not the shelves have had the same damage?
We need more explanation. This sounds like an imcomplete report or a report based on incomplete data. We shall see as more comes out.
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Reading the actual report does install some cnfidence that they are doing the best they can with the information available but it does have some shocking detailes:
- news reports supporting the idea of a high-altitude breakup said the victims were found naked. The report says the victims were found clothed.
- it was many days before victims or wreckage were found. The circle of debris was many kilometers in diameter.
- the crash happened near the boundaries of ATC regions so it was many hours before an incident was declared.
- impact was in a normal flight line but on the belly. Did the plane lose altitude information and fly into the ocean?
- automatic signals indicated the engines may have been set to idle…
- other planes sent radio messages about diverting a few kilometers to get around storms just before and after the crashing flight. These folks did not.
This is absolutely wierd. Did the plane have a stall at low altitude? Were they trying to ditch? Did they dive to recover from decompression but overdo it? How did they drop thousands of feet and not have time for an SOS? Why did they not find the black boxes?
This is a huge mystery folks. Does it have to happen again before it can be figured out? If the plane belly-flopped, will a large enough piece be down there to be spotted on high resolution sonar? How could the circle of debris be sol large so quickly if the breakup was on impact?