The world is changing. It has changed. No longer can you keep up with the Jonses doing what you have been doing. You have to change too.
Dell will be pushing PCs to farmers in China, a huge emerging market. Dell will have to earn its keep selling low-cost PCs to people not locked-in to that other OS. I guess that means GNU/Linux will become more popular in a land where it is already popular. The government of China is subsidizing these purchases to boost the economy internally. The cities have been enjoying the fruits of the technology/manufacturing boom in China. Now the rural parts will join in.
This is a market of hundreds of millions of people now able to buy their first PC. The world will be tripping over themselves to sell and price/performance will matter and monopoly will have no place. Dell will likely be selling PCs made in China from Chinese parts with Chinese labour. Will Dell recommend Vista? I doubt it.
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Linux is already popular in China? Not at all. I spent 2 years teaching English in China and I will return later this year to teach again. I have countless friends and colleges in the country who I’ve known for at least 5 years. Linux is NOT popular for several reasons. Besides being largely unknown, most Chinese will prefer Windows simply because to them it’s a “Real OS”. They admire American culture and the Chinese are smarter than you think. They are aware the country has a reputation for cheap knock offs and they don’t want to use a cheap OS like Linux. They prefer a genuine product, even if it’s pirated. You should also know that most Chinese websites do not work properly on other non-Microsoft browsers. If given a machine with Linux installed on it, most would seek out a pirated or discounted copy of Microsoft Windows.
For another thing, though your link is broken, I was able to find the story myself. Nowhere does it mention that these machines will use Linux. This was your own added assumption based on the idea that Chinese users want Linux, and as I just told you, they certainly don’t.
There are millions of GNU/Linux PCs in China and more are being built as OEMs who cannot sell as much as they like outside of China these days are turning to local production. China has a couple of distros that are very popular, RedFlag and TurboLinux.
“Dell has 15 computer products it will sell to rural consumers in China, a market that makes up 5 percent of the company’s global business, the PC maker’s Greater China President Amit Midha said at a briefing in Beijing today.”
I see all kinds of news about GNU/Linux in China. See, for example:
http://www.s5h.net/2008/03/17/dell-launches-new-gnulinux-laptop-in-china/
“Dell Launches Linux-Based Laptop in China
This week, Dell China launched a new model, Dell 500, to its laptop lineup in
China. With price tag as low as 3,699 RMB ($520), the Dell 500 offers a Linux
operating system, 512MB RAM, 80G hard drive and 15.4” screen. ”
and
“China Linux Market Will Grow at Annual Rate of 34%, Says R&M
It is predicted that in China, Linux market (both server and client) will grow with an annual rate of 34 %. The client-side share growth will be comparatively faster. “
In the link you provided, we see expectations of sales from company press releases. What company releases a product and says, “We don’t expect to sell very much. This will probably be a flop.” Exactly. You only start the production of a product under the assumption (or gamble, if you prefer) that you will make a profit. That isn’t always the case. That’s business.
You have your information from press releases. I have mine from first hand experience and talking with locals who live there.