Robert Pogson

Psystar is counter-suing APPLE for the freedom to install MacOSX on non-Apple hardware. Whoops! If they win, everyone will be able to install MacOSX on PCs. That will take another bite out of the monopoly as huge numbers of PCs could go that way. Now MacOSX is restricted to APPLE’s machines. Opening that up will give consumers a straight-up choice of OS:

• that other OS
• MacOSX
• GNU/Linux

Whatever increase in choice there is will be a reduction in choice for that other OS and M$ will lose a bit more. It is hard to estimate the magnitude of this effect, but if Apple sells 3% of PCs and puts MacOSX on them then entrepreneurs trying anything to carve out more sales may easily flood the market with non-Apple PCs with MacOSX. Their prices will be lower and they should get more share. I imagine there could be a rapid 10% share drop for that other OS because many recognize MacOSX already but do not want to pay the Apple-tax. This will give them access to something they like at a reduced price. Psystar would not be doing this if they did not have buyers. The world of PC-makers is a lot bigger than Apple in potential volume.

Of course, the more people who see that there is an alternative to that other OS, the better and GNU/Linux will get some uptick, too. This compounding of effects will make 2009 a very good year of GNU/Linux. This matter could be settled as a matter of law, not requiring a trial as the judge can interpret the copyright laws for himself. I would not be surprised to get a ruling this year, perhaps not in time to accelerate the avalanche but that would surely come next year.

What of the merits of Psystar’s case? Copyright is supposed to be about allowing the creator of a work to profit by giving exclusive right to reproduce… Psystar can buy a copy to Apple’s benefit and install it on any machine they want. The copyright law does not permit a writer to dictate his book may only be laid on green felt tables. It permits him to receive a royalty, not obeisance.

This could be fun. This changes the whole universe as far as ultimate market share, post-monopoly. Assuming consumers are equally enamoured of similar products, one would expect a share of 1/N so we have 1/3 instead of 1/2, counting that other OS, MacOSX and GNU/Linux as the new three. When it was GNU/Linux and that other OS, 1/2 would have been about right. The difference between 1/2 and 1/3 is 1/6 of the universe of PCs, about 200 million machines. Multiplied by $100 or so and it is many billions of dollars. Real money and it flows out of M$’s clutches into Apple’s.

When OEMs see their share due to M$ fall, will they look elsewhere? You can bet on it. Some will switch to MacOSX or make it an option. Others will try to increase share by using lower prices for systems with GNU/Linux. Competion on price and performance. What a novel concept. One wonders why Apple does not embrace the future. I would bet they could sell enough copies of MacOSX to compensate for their loss of business on machines or they may actually be able to sell more Apple machines by cutting their prices… It is all good. Go Psystar.