Robert Pogson

I made this comment in reply to an article on LinuxLoop and thought it good enough to post here. It is along the same line as a previous article here.

The market share of GNU/Linux on the desktop is closer to 6% than 1%. The NetApps data is biased towards that other OS. If you look at http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp which is biased towards that other OS because it does have some windows-only server scripting parts, the numbers are like 3.4%. These numbers are both based on User-agent strings which can be faked, too. I used to run Opera on GNU/Linux as IE on that other OS so some sites would let me in . There are many sites that punish non-IE visitors.

Further, one needs to look at global distributions. GNU/Linux is really hot in Asia. How is that area represented in the quoted data? We do not know.

I base my number on survey data from IDC and the like and growth figures. GNU/Linux was quoted as being as prevalent as MacOS a few years ago and growing very rapidly. In places like China, growth in numbers of GNU/Linux desktops is reportedly growing 60% per annum thanks to government policy to ban sales of naked PCs, and a crackdown on illegal copies of that other OS.

see http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P2229
see http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P2438

While surveys and predictions are not very satisfying, I certainly have not seen any slowdown in adoption of GNU/Linux. XP has converted many to GNU/Linux just to escape forced upgrades and malware. Recently people have been bringing Vista machines to me because they phone home and cut off service if they cannot. M$ has recently decided Vista SP1 will nag instead of cut off service, but it is too late for many. In my community the number of GNU/Linux desktops has gone from about 1% to about 50% in one year because the school went with GNU/Linux in the lab and students began using it at home. Next year this community will be about 90% GNU/Linux because the school is going to put 4 GNU/Linux PCs in every classroom and common area. Even the die-hards in offices are accepting GNU/Linux here because it works.

Do not rely on web stats. Take your own survey and make it unbiased. My town is small enough, I can ask for a show of hands in the gym to do my survey.

Three years ago I started to meet people who used GNU/Linux on the desktop in person. Last year, my wife’s pastor accepted GNU/Linux into his heart. Last year I set up a whole K-12 school using GNU/Linux. This year a whole town will move in that direction. There is no stopping the march of the penguin.
——UPDATE——
Recent news is that ASUS eee PC keeps selling out even though they produce 175000 units per month. The rise of the low-cost PC where that other OS is inappropriate will accelerate the adoption of GNU/Linux in price-sensitive markets: youth, students, the elderly and most people outside USA and Europe. China, for instance, could consume as many PCs as the rest of the world and they could all be running GNU/Linux. That is why Bill cut his price to $3… Vista will not even install on many of these small PCs and will not have any benefit over XP if it is squeezed in, so the additional cost due to M$’s licence will be too much for the market to bear. Expect M$ to make price cuts or a customization for low-end PCs, not the tradition with Wintel.