Archive for June, 2007

The Value Proposition

GNU/Linux represents hundreds of millions of lines of source code which would cost billions of dollars to replace. It will more or less do more than that other OS which costs the world economy billions in licence fees and billions in malware prevention, remediation, and down-time. Another plus for Linux is that one can do more on each machine and continue doing that until the hardware fails completely. Many firms with many servers claim to use one-third the number of servers with Linux as with that other OS because:

  • Linux loves to run heavily loaded
  • Linux rarely needs rebooting even for upgrades
  • Linux servers do not require a graphical user interface

On the desktop, the installation of the Linux OS presents much more software and more useful applications. The fact that most distributions carefully test thousands of applications and software packages for compatibility means software upgrades are fairly easy and reliable. The burden of licences with that other OS is great:

  • $100 per seat for XP
  • $1000 for a server licence
  • $600 for Office or $100 for educational version of Office
  • $40 per seat for CAL

There is simply no contest here. GNU/Linux is better software, a better buy, better value in the long run giving longer use of equipment and more productivity per dollar. Users can literally double the number of seats or halve the cost of equipment with GNU/Linux and the cost of maintenance really plummets if Linux thin clients are used for they have almost no maintenance and no per-seat licences.

The return on investment is very high for GNU/Linux because of the absence of licence fees. Many migrators recover their investment in months due to reduced power consumption, maintenance and increased uptime. That is often the case with Linux thin clients. Thick clients take longer to recover the cost, perhaps two or three years. Remember, some customers of M$ pay $1000 or more per seat annually for maintenance (largely compensating for its faults and weaknesses) of that other OS. One techie can handle perhaps 50 to 100 seats with that other OS. With Linux, 1000 is not unusual for thin clients, because most of that work will be managing accounts, and monitoring a few servers not repairing file systems. This means the cost of maintaining one seat in Linux may well be less than $100 per annum.

These advantages of Linux mean, in essence, that it costs nothing to migrate to Linux, analyzing the numbers in the long run. Remember, techies for that other OS plan on replacing everything every 3 to 5 years while with Linux 5 to 10 years is reasonable. There simply is no reason to replace the per-seat hardware while it still works well. If you examine replacement costs they will be half or less with Linux. Being able to use older equipment well means you can save almost all your per-seat hardware costs by using stuff the users of that other OS discard or pay you to haul away.

- Robert Pogson

Deliberate Lock-in by M$

Here is an excerpt from
http://edge-op.org/iowa/www.iowaconsumercase.org/010807/PLEX_5906.pdf an M$ memo, an exhibit in the Iowa Consumer case.

Switching Costs

In economics there is a well-understood concept called switching costs – how much it costs for a trading-partner to change partners. Our philosophy on switching costs is very clear: we want low switching costs for customers who want to start using our platform, and we want to provide so much unique value that there are in effect high costs of deciding to move to a different platform. There is a name for this: it is
called Embrace and Extend.

Embrace means we are compatible with what’s out there, so you can switch to our platform without a lot of obstacles and rework. You can switch from someone else’s Java compiler to ours; from someone else’s Web server to ours; etc. Customers love when we do this (as long as we don’t spend our energy embracing extra standards no one really cares about); our competitors are not so sure they like it because they prefer us to screw up.

Extend means we provide tremendous value that nobody else does, so (A) you really want to switch to our software, and (B) once you try our software you would never want to go back to some inferior junk from our competitors. Customers usually like when we do this, since by definition it’s only an extension if it adds value. Competitors hate when we do this, because by adding new value we make our products much harder to clone – this is the difference between innovation and just being a commodity like com where suppliers compete on price alone. Nobody builds or sustains a business as successful as Microsoft by producing trivial products that are easy to clone – that would be a strategy for failure.

If we fail to embrace, we can lose because there are big barriers to buying our products. But if we fail to extend, or do only humble work that is easy to clone or to surpass, we automatically lose because our competitors will spend literally billions of dollars to clone our work and replace us.

The Windows API

Windows was a very successful embrace-and-extend move. People already had DOS machines and DOS apps, and we were able to go in and say “add this to your machine and it will just get better.” Wow! What a deal! It seems to have worked out all right so far. NT is a very similar move; although it’s not trivial to upgrade from Win95 to NT, in general you can use the same compuler, same apps. and same APIs as before, plus more.

The really big win in Windows is the API. An app that calls the Windows API is effectively calling upon thousands of person-years of engineering work to help their app get its job done in a very specific way. You could argue that the API is too hard to use, that not every library is as fast as ii should be, or other serious imperfections, but the fact remains: if you took away Windows, that application would no longer work.

The Windows API is so broad, so deep, and so functional that most ISVs would be crazy not to use it. And it is so deeply embedded in the source code of many Windows apps that there is a huge switching cost to using a different operating system instead. You can’t just take a Windows app and stick it on some weird Java NC from Oracle, for example, and expect it to work – the guts just are not there. For many customers, the cast of reworking all their apps would be huge.

It is this switching cost that has given customers the patience to stick with Windows through all our mistakes, our buggy drivers, our high TCO, our lack of a sexy vision at times, and many other difficulties. People have tried to clone Windows, but it is just too hard to do well. Customers constantly evaluate other desktop platforms, but it would be so much work to move over that they hope we just improve Windows rather than force them to move.

In short, without this exclusive franchise called the Windows API, we would have been dead a long time ago.

This was written while developing strategy to embrace and extend java, but it is the same thing with Linux. It is difficult to migrate apps to Linux from that other OS if the full API (or that part of the API M$ has revealed to outsiders) has been used. Apps are a problem for about 20% of situations with PCs so this is one factor that prevents users from migrating to Linux. It is also obvious that using M$ stuff makes it difficult to interoperate. M$ goes out of its way to extend standards so that competitors cannot interoperate. IE-only websites are an example we see frequently.

Computer users need foresight to realize that bearing the cost of that other OS forever is a huge burden. It is worth the short-term pain to save that huge cost (and freedom from FUD, malware, BSODs etc.). It is much like a mortgage on your house: a shorter amortization period is more difficult, but you can pay off the mortgage in half the time and really boost your discretionary cash flow later. The easy cases of migration to Linux terminal servers and thin clients can break even in a few months. The difficult cases may take years to break even. It all depends on how long you plan to stick around. I think the future is brighter with Linux on the desktop.

- Robert Pogson



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My Mission

My observations and opinions about IT are based on 40 years of use in science and technology and lately, in education. I like IT that is fast, cost-effective and reliable. I do not care whether my solution is the same as yours. I like to think for myself.

My first use of GNU/Linux in 2001 was so remarkably better than what I had been using, I feel it is important work to share GNU/Linux with the world. I have been blessed by working in schools where students and school systems have benefited by good, modular software easily installed in most systems.

I have shown GNU/Linux to thousands of students and hundreds of teachers over the years and will continue in some way doing that until I die in spite of the opposition.

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